19 June 2021
Raisi Elected President of Iran
In a victory seemingly engineered by the county's clerical authorities, Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi has been elected president of Iran. Although Raisi, a hardline conservative, won with 62% of the vote, turnout was low: only 48.8% of eligible voters cast ballots in the election, compared with the 73.3% turnout in Iran's 2017 presidential election. The low turnout in the election likely reflects, among other things, the disqualification by Iran's Guardian Council of all of the reformist, most of the moderate, and several prominent conservative candidates for the presidency.
In addition to being the country's Chief Justice, Raisi is well known in Iran for presiding over the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57537027
In addition to being the country's Chief Justice, Raisi is well known in Iran for presiding over the mass execution of thousands of political prisoners in 1988:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57537027
18 June 2021
The Size of the World's Economies
To measure the size of a country's economy, economists calculate the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the total market value of all of the final goods and services produced in the country in a single year. To compare the size of different countries' economies, economists often adjust their GDP calculations for Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), that is, they try to take into account the actual cost of buying goods and services in different countries. (For example, $100 will typically buy more goods and services in Mexico or China than it will in the United States, but fewer goods and services in Norway than it will in the United States. This means that unadjusted or nominal GDP figures tend to make output in Mexico and China appear less than it actually is, relative to the United States, and output in Norway look greater than it actually is, relative to the United States.) Adjusting countries’ GDPs (and their GDPs per
capita) for PPP permits the direct comparison of the size
of their economies (and their levels of output per person).
An article published by Big Think compares the nominal GDP, and the GDP adjusted for PPP, of different countries, and of regions within different countries, using cartograms. The result is a particularly effective way of seeing how output is distributed globally:
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gdp-map
An article published by Big Think compares the nominal GDP, and the GDP adjusted for PPP, of different countries, and of regions within different countries, using cartograms. The result is a particularly effective way of seeing how output is distributed globally:
https://bigthink.com/strange-maps/gdp-map
Hong Kong Police Arrest Editor and Top Executives of Pro-Democracy Newspaper
Yesterday, Hong Kong police arrested Ryan Law, the editor in chief of Apple Daily, a pro-democracy newspaper. The police also arrested four other Apple Daily executives, including Cheung Kim-hung, the president of the newspaper's publisher, Next Digital, Ltd. Law and Cheung have been accused of colluding with foreign powers (apparently by publishing articles portraying the Chinese government unsympathetically). The arrests are part of an ongoing government assault on civil liberties in Hong Kong:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/19/hong-kongs-liberal-media-are-under-pressure
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/19/hong-kongs-liberal-media-are-under-pressure
13 June 2021
The Collapse of Mexico City's Metro Line 12
In May, an above-ground section of the Mexico City Metro collapsed as a train was crossing it, killing 26 people. A New York Times investigation of the tragedy concludes that "[t]he steel studs that were vital to the strength of the overpass —
linchpins of the entire structure — appear to have failed because of bad
welds, critical mistakes that likely caused the crash."
The Times investigation concludes further that the construction of the line that failed -- the Metro's Line 12 -- was shoddy in part becuase it was rushed to suit the political aspirations of the Mayor of Mexico City at the time, Marcelo Ebrard. Ebrard is currently Mexico's Secretary of Foreign Affairs, and is expected to seek the nomination of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA) for the presidency in 2021.
The Times investigation also notes that Line 12 was built by a company ultimately controlled by Mexico's wealthiest citizen, Carlos Slim. It was the first rail construction project undertaken by a Slim-owned entity. This inexperience may have proven deadly: the Times charges that the studs that failed were placed irregularly, and not in conformity with a construction plan, that ceramic rings were improperly left around some of the studs that failed, that parts of the overpass that failed were missing steel components, and that some of the concrete in the overpass had been poured incorrectly.
The Times also reports that the same Slim-owned company that built Line 12 is building a substantial portion of Tren Maya, the new train that will encircle Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is pushing the companies involved in the construction of Tren Maya to complete the project before his term as president ends in 2021:
Kitroeff, Natalie et al. "Why the Mexico City Metro Collapsed." The New York Times. The New York Times Co., 13 June 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/12/world/americas/mexico-city-train-crash.html. Accessed 13 June 2021.
The Times investigation concludes further that the construction of the line that failed -- the Metro's Line 12 -- was shoddy in part becuase it was rushed to suit the political aspirations of the Mayor of Mexico City at the time, Marcelo Ebrard. Ebrard is currently Mexico's Secretary of Foreign Affairs, and is expected to seek the nomination of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA) for the presidency in 2021.
The Times investigation also notes that Line 12 was built by a company ultimately controlled by Mexico's wealthiest citizen, Carlos Slim. It was the first rail construction project undertaken by a Slim-owned entity. This inexperience may have proven deadly: the Times charges that the studs that failed were placed irregularly, and not in conformity with a construction plan, that ceramic rings were improperly left around some of the studs that failed, that parts of the overpass that failed were missing steel components, and that some of the concrete in the overpass had been poured incorrectly.
The Times also reports that the same Slim-owned company that built Line 12 is building a substantial portion of Tren Maya, the new train that will encircle Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is pushing the companies involved in the construction of Tren Maya to complete the project before his term as president ends in 2021:
Kitroeff, Natalie et al. "Why the Mexico City Metro Collapsed." The New York Times. The New York Times Co., 13 June 2021, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/06/12/world/americas/mexico-city-train-crash.html. Accessed 13 June 2021.
MORENA and Its Allies Win a Majority of Seats in the Chamber of Deputies but Lose Their Supermajority
Mexico held midterm elections one week ago. The National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA) of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador did well; MORENA and its allies won a majority of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies, the lower house of the Mexican Congress. MORENA also succeeded at the local level, winning 11 of the 15 gubernatorial races conducted last week and majorities in many state legislatures.
MORENA and its legislative allies, however, lost the two-thirds supermajority they had enjoyed in the Chamber of Deputies since their triumph in the 2018 general election. MORENA and its allies, moreover, hold a majority but not a supermajority in the Mexican Senate, as they have since 2018. As a practical matter, this means that the political status quo will not change significantly as a result of the midterm elections. López Obrador will be able to enact his policy agenda but must negotiate with at least some of the opposition parties on any significant reform proposals that require amending Mexico's constitution.
MORENA and its legislative allies, however, lost the two-thirds supermajority they had enjoyed in the Chamber of Deputies since their triumph in the 2018 general election. MORENA and its allies, moreover, hold a majority but not a supermajority in the Mexican Senate, as they have since 2018. As a practical matter, this means that the political status quo will not change significantly as a result of the midterm elections. López Obrador will be able to enact his policy agenda but must negotiate with at least some of the opposition parties on any significant reform proposals that require amending Mexico's constitution.
The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
For decades, members of the Chinese Communist Party suspected of corruption have been subject to investigation and punishment by the Party's Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI). The CCDI was not required to observe the procedural safeguards that theoretically characterize the Chinese legal system. Party members suspected of corruption were interrogated in secret, and imprisoned without trial in secret prisons. Early in his tenure, the current General Secretary of the Party, Chinese President Xi Jinping, promised to subject the CCDI to Chinese legal norms; in 2018, the CCDI was placed under the control of a new agency, the National Supervisory Commission.
In fact, the CCDI continues to operate much as it always has: the CCDI interrogates suspects in secret, and imprisons officials without trial in secret prisons. Moreover, since 2018, the CCDI's authority has expanded substantially. It now has jurisdiction over all public officials, whether or not they are Party members. Moreover, the CCDI now has the responsibility for investigating and punishing officials (and Party members who do not hold official positions) suspected of political disloyalty as well as corruption:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/12/the-anti-graft-unit-of-chinas-communist-party-has-grown-in-power
In fact, the CCDI continues to operate much as it always has: the CCDI interrogates suspects in secret, and imprisons officials without trial in secret prisons. Moreover, since 2018, the CCDI's authority has expanded substantially. It now has jurisdiction over all public officials, whether or not they are Party members. Moreover, the CCDI now has the responsibility for investigating and punishing officials (and Party members who do not hold official positions) suspected of political disloyalty as well as corruption:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/12/the-anti-graft-unit-of-chinas-communist-party-has-grown-in-power
12 June 2021
Iranian Presidential Candidate Charges That Hardliners Are Manipulating the Election
Iranians will elect a new president on Friday. The most exciting moment in the campaign, so far, came in a televised debate Tuesday when one of the two moderates permitted to run alleged that regime hardliners have "mobilized sun and moon and the heavens to make" Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi president. Indeed, the Guardian Counsel has outdone itself this year, disqualifying all reformist and all but two moderate candidates, as well as such well-known conservatives as former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and former Majles Speaker Ali Larijani. (Interestingly, Ali Larijani's brother, Sadeq Larijani, is a member of the Guardian Council that disqualified him. Sadeq Larijani was also Raisi's immediate predecessor as Chief Justice of Iran.)
Raisi appears likely to become Iran's next president. But election turnout may plummet, denying both Raisi and the Iranian regime the veneer of democratic legitimacy afforded by holding an election. Then again, the Iranian regime's claim of legitimacy ultimately rests, not on democratic accountability, but on religious principle (specifically, the late Ayatollah Khomeini's interpretation of velayat-e faqih):
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/06/10/iran-has-rigged-its-election-to-favour-ebrahim-raisi-a-hardliner
Raisi appears likely to become Iran's next president. But election turnout may plummet, denying both Raisi and the Iranian regime the veneer of democratic legitimacy afforded by holding an election. Then again, the Iranian regime's claim of legitimacy ultimately rests, not on democratic accountability, but on religious principle (specifically, the late Ayatollah Khomeini's interpretation of velayat-e faqih):
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/06/10/iran-has-rigged-its-election-to-favour-ebrahim-raisi-a-hardliner
Russian Government Moves to Silence Navalny Supporters
Earlier this week,
[a] court in Moscow ruled that two organisations connected to Alexei Navalny, a jailed opposition leader in Russia, were “extremist”, and thus should be shut down and their members barred from standing in elections. The move, which follows a change in the law that came into effect just five days earlier, is clearly aimed at preventing supporters of Mr Navalny from running in parliamentary elections expected in September. The hearing was held behind closed doors."Politics This Week." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 12 June 2021. https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/06/12/politics-this-week. Accessed 12 June 2021.
06 June 2021
Nigeria Blocks Twitter after Site Deletes President's Threatening Post
When Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari took office in 2015, it was the first time in Nigeria's post-colonial history that power was transferred peacefully between one political party and another. But Buhari has not always been a committed democrat. In 1983, Buhari, then a general in the Nigerian Army, seized power in a military coup; he ran Nigeria until 1985, when he was deposed by another general.
This week, President Buhari's authoritarian tendencies were on full display. First, in a Twitter post, Buhari threatened to treat modern-day secessionists in southeastern Nigeria "in the language they understand," an apparent reference to the mass starvation of the people of secessionist Biafra during the 1967-70 Nigerian Civil War. Then, when Twitter deleted Buhari's post, saying that it violated the company's policies, the Nigerian government responded by blocking Twitter throughout the country:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/05/world/africa/nigeria-twitter-president.html
This week, President Buhari's authoritarian tendencies were on full display. First, in a Twitter post, Buhari threatened to treat modern-day secessionists in southeastern Nigeria "in the language they understand," an apparent reference to the mass starvation of the people of secessionist Biafra during the 1967-70 Nigerian Civil War. Then, when Twitter deleted Buhari's post, saying that it violated the company's policies, the Nigerian government responded by blocking Twitter throughout the country:
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/05/world/africa/nigeria-twitter-president.html
Reduced Parliamentary Oversight Has Increased the Power of British Government Ministers
For the most part, the British Parliament has met online for the past year. Members of Parliament are increasingly concerned that meeting online has weakened parliamentary oversight of government ministries. The Economist warns that MPs may be out to assert themselves when Parliament begins to meet again in person later this month:
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/05/mps-are-returning-to-parliament-in-a-rebellious-mood
In particular, some Conservative government ministers have used their increased power to try to impose their political perspective on the country's cultural institutions:
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/05/boris-johnsons-government-wants-more-patriotic-cultural-institutions
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/05/mps-are-returning-to-parliament-in-a-rebellious-mood
In particular, some Conservative government ministers have used their increased power to try to impose their political perspective on the country's cultural institutions:
https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/06/05/boris-johnsons-government-wants-more-patriotic-cultural-institutions
Russian Legislation Likely to Exclude Dissidents from Elective Office
The Russian Federation Council, the upper house of the Russian Federal Assembly,
approved a law [this week] barring members of “terrorist” and “extremist” organisations from holding elective office. Vladimir Putin’s government routinely applies those labels to peaceful dissident groups, such as the supporters of Alexei Navalny, the main opposition leader, who is in prison on bogus charges."Politics This Week." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 5 June 2021. https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/06/05/politics-this-week. Accessed 6 June 2021.
China to Open Portion of Second Rail Line to Tibet; Segment Runs Close to Disputed Border with India
In 2006, the Chinese government opened the first railway connecting
Tibet with the rest of China. Construction of the railway constituted a
significant technical achievement: the line is at such a high elevation
that much of it traverses permafrost. The opening of the railway was
intended to tie Tibet more closely to the rest of China, by allowing Han
Chinese people to move to Tibet (which is overwhelmingly Tibetan, and
not Han Chinese) and by allowing goods to move more easily between Tibet
and the rest of China.
In 2014, the Chinese government began work on a second rail line connecting Tibet with the rest of China. The new line should be completed by 2030. Completion of the second line will be an even greater engineering achievement than construction of the first Tibetan rail line: the new line will be 1000 miles long, and cross fourteen mountains.
In July, the Chinese government will open the first part of the new line, a 270-mile stretch connecting Tibet's capital, Lhasa, with the city of Nyingchi. Nyingchi is close to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, a Himalayan region that China claims and refers to as "South Tibet:"
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/05/china-will-soon-open-a-new-stretch-of-rail-across-tibet
China's multiple border disputes with India last resulted in war in 1962, though there have been deadly skirmishes since then. The most recent round of fighting took place between May 2020 and January 2021; 20 Indian soldiers, and at least as many Chinese soldiers, were killed in the fighting. The Chinese government, however, is very sensitive about its casualty statistics; last week,
In 2014, the Chinese government began work on a second rail line connecting Tibet with the rest of China. The new line should be completed by 2030. Completion of the second line will be an even greater engineering achievement than construction of the first Tibetan rail line: the new line will be 1000 miles long, and cross fourteen mountains.
In July, the Chinese government will open the first part of the new line, a 270-mile stretch connecting Tibet's capital, Lhasa, with the city of Nyingchi. Nyingchi is close to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, a Himalayan region that China claims and refers to as "South Tibet:"
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/05/china-will-soon-open-a-new-stretch-of-rail-across-tibet
China's multiple border disputes with India last resulted in war in 1962, though there have been deadly skirmishes since then. The most recent round of fighting took place between May 2020 and January 2021; 20 Indian soldiers, and at least as many Chinese soldiers, were killed in the fighting. The Chinese government, however, is very sensitive about its casualty statistics; last week,
[a] Chinese blogger, Qiu Ziming, was sentenced to eight months in prison for “picking quarrels and causing trouble”. His offence related to his posts suggesting that China had under-reported the number of its soldiers killed in border clashes with India last year."Politics This Week." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 5 June 2021. https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/06/05/politics-this-week. Accessed 6 June 2021.
01 June 2021
China to Adopt a "Three-Child" Policy
In 1980, in an effort to prevent overpopulation, China adopted a policy that limited most Chinese couples to one child. The Chinese government contends that the "one-child policy" prevented the birth of 400 million children, and that per capita income in China is much higher today than it would have been without the policy. Critics of the policy contend that China's birth rate was already falling when the policy was introduced, and that the country's economic growth and dramatic urbanization would have produced similar demographic results, without the coercive (fines) and occasionally abusive (forced sterilization, forced abortion) measures used to restrict Chinese couples to one child.
The one-child policy was progressively relaxed after 2005; by 2015, all Chinese couples were allowed to have two children. China's birth rate, however, continued to fall. The Chinese labor force is currently shrinking, and that labor force must support an ever growing number of elderly people. Moreover, the total population of the country may have peaked last year; if it did not, it will peak within the next two years.
China's leaders, eager to maintain a global image of a country that is constantly growing in economic and military power, have begun to consider adopting such pro-natal policies as providing subsidies for families with children, expanding child-care facilities, improving maternity benefits, and lowering the cost to families of educating their children. This week, the Chinese government took a dramatic step in the direction of encouraging couples to have children by announcing that it would soon allow couples to have up to three children. Demographers, however, do not believe that a "three-child policy" will greatly increase the number of babies born in the country:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/05/31/china-allows-its-citizens-to-have-a-third-child
The one-child policy was progressively relaxed after 2005; by 2015, all Chinese couples were allowed to have two children. China's birth rate, however, continued to fall. The Chinese labor force is currently shrinking, and that labor force must support an ever growing number of elderly people. Moreover, the total population of the country may have peaked last year; if it did not, it will peak within the next two years.
China's leaders, eager to maintain a global image of a country that is constantly growing in economic and military power, have begun to consider adopting such pro-natal policies as providing subsidies for families with children, expanding child-care facilities, improving maternity benefits, and lowering the cost to families of educating their children. This week, the Chinese government took a dramatic step in the direction of encouraging couples to have children by announcing that it would soon allow couples to have up to three children. Demographers, however, do not believe that a "three-child policy" will greatly increase the number of babies born in the country:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/05/31/china-allows-its-citizens-to-have-a-third-child
University Admissions in China Increasingly Favor Economically Privileged Students with Urban Hukou
Admissions to university in China are highly competitive. They are also increasingly unfair. Middle class and well-to-do students with hukou in China's largest cities have a much easier time gaining admission to university than working class and poor students from China's rural villages, or from families that live illegally in China's cities:
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/05/27/education-in-china-is-becoming-increasingly-unfair-to-the-poor
https://www.economist.com/china/2021/05/27/education-in-china-is-becoming-increasingly-unfair-to-the-poor
Mexican Midterm Elections Will Determine the Fate of AMLO's Agenda
Later this week, Mexico will hold midterm elections. The entire federal Chamber of Deputies, the 500-member lower house of the Mexican Congress, will be chosen. Voters will also elect governors in 15 of Mexico's 32 states, state legislatures in 30 states, and thousands of local officials. The National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA) of Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is expected to do well, as are parties allied to it.
In a lengthy piece, The Economist argues this week that Mexican voters should vote for the opposition parties. The piece posits that López Obrador has done a poor job of addressing Mexico's problems: his economic, environmental, public health and law enforcement policies have either proven ineffective or made conditions in Mexico worse. More concerning, however, is what The Economist contends is López Obrador's "disregard for the rule of law." López Obrador has weakened the courts and the civil service, and has used hastily called, demonstrably unfair referenda to overturn decisions made by other government officials with which he disagrees. The Economist argues that López Obrador is a populist: he believes that he uniquely understands the will of the Mexican people, and that anyone who disagrees with him is trying to subvert that will. In The Economist's estimation, this makes López Obrador a potential threat to democracy -- a threat that Mexican voters should address by denying him a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and by punishing his party in state and local elections:
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/27/mexicos-populist-president-faces-a-crucial-test-in-elections-in-june
In a lengthy piece, The Economist argues this week that Mexican voters should vote for the opposition parties. The piece posits that López Obrador has done a poor job of addressing Mexico's problems: his economic, environmental, public health and law enforcement policies have either proven ineffective or made conditions in Mexico worse. More concerning, however, is what The Economist contends is López Obrador's "disregard for the rule of law." López Obrador has weakened the courts and the civil service, and has used hastily called, demonstrably unfair referenda to overturn decisions made by other government officials with which he disagrees. The Economist argues that López Obrador is a populist: he believes that he uniquely understands the will of the Mexican people, and that anyone who disagrees with him is trying to subvert that will. In The Economist's estimation, this makes López Obrador a potential threat to democracy -- a threat that Mexican voters should address by denying him a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, and by punishing his party in state and local elections:
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/05/27/mexicos-populist-president-faces-a-crucial-test-in-elections-in-june
Nigerian Government Efforts to Establish Peace Between Cattle Herders and Farmers Not Working
According to The Economist, the efforts of the Nigerian federal government to establish peace in central Nigeria between nomadic, Hausa and Fulani-speaking, Muslim herders and settled, Berom-speaking, Christian farmers have proven ineffective. The Nigerian government would like the herders to establish cattle ranches, but it does not own the land on which the ranches would be established nor has it funded efforts to establish them. Climate change and terrorist violence in northeastern Nigeria are also exacerbating tensions:
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/05/22/a-nigerian-plan-to-reconcile-farmers-and-herders-is-not-working
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/05/22/a-nigerian-plan-to-reconcile-farmers-and-herders-is-not-working
Boko Haram Leader Commits Suicide but Insurgency Continues; Nonetheless, Nigeria Redeploys Some Troops to Southeast
Abubakar Shekau, the leader of Boko Haram, appears to have committed suicide to avoid being captured by Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), a rival extremist organization fighting to establish an Islamic caliphate that would include northern Nigeria. Shekau's death is not expected to affect significantly the Nigerian government's fight against armed extremism in northeastern Nigeria. Many of Boko Haram's fighters will likely be absorbed by ISWAP:
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/05/27/abubakar-shekau-boko-harams-vicious-leader-is-said-to-be-dead
Despite the persistent insurgency in northern Nigeria, the Nigerian government recently announced that
https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2021/05/27/abubakar-shekau-boko-harams-vicious-leader-is-said-to-be-dead
Despite the persistent insurgency in northern Nigeria, the Nigerian government recently announced that
it would pull soldiers and armed helicopters from the north-east of the country ... to battle separatists in the south-east instead. Some criticised the move, saying it risks turning a political problem into an insurgency."Politics This Week." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 22 May 2021. https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/05/20/politics-this-week. Accessed 1 June 2021.
Ebrahimi Raisi, Iran's Hardline Chief Justice, Expected to Win Presidential Election
Although Iran is by no means a democracy, the Iranian political system has important democratic elements. The president and the Majles (the national legislature) are elected in competitive elections (though voters choose from candidates approved by the clerical authorities) and the results of those elections have a significant influence on many
government policies. This month's presidential election will thus have a crucial effect on Iran's economic and foreign policy for the next four, or even eight, years.
This week, however,
The BBC similarly predicts that Raisi, the best known of the "principlist" candidates, will be elected president. The public, discouraged by years of economic crisis and frustrated that the most popular reformist and moderate candidates have been disqualified from running, is likely to stay home. In the past, when election turnout has fallen in Iran, hardline candidates have triumphed:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57097664
This week, however,
Iran’s Guardian Council disqualified most of the candidates who registered to run in the presidential election on June 18th. Only seven candidates, mostly hardline and pious, were allowed on the ballot. The conservative judiciary chief, Ebrahim Raisi, is the front-runner to succeed Hassan Rouhani, who is relatively moderate."Politics This Week." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 29 May 2021. https://www.economist.com/the-world-this-week/2021/05/29/politics-this-week. Accessed 1 June 2021.
The BBC similarly predicts that Raisi, the best known of the "principlist" candidates, will be elected president. The public, discouraged by years of economic crisis and frustrated that the most popular reformist and moderate candidates have been disqualified from running, is likely to stay home. In the past, when election turnout has fallen in Iran, hardline candidates have triumphed:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-57097664
