AHS Comparative Government

Small demonstrations broke out in seven Iranian cities yesterday and today, apparently in protest against poor economic conditions and Iranian foreign policy. In at least one of the demonstrations, protesters shouted slogans criticizing Iran's Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and Iran's President, Hassan Rouhani. Some demonstrators reportedly clashed with Basiji militiamen and police officers, and some protesters were arrested:

http://www.dw.com/en/protests-spread-in-iran-tied-to-economic-problems/a-41974090

According to The Economist, 

[w]herever it is widely practised, polygamy (specifically polygyny, the taking of multiple wives) destabilises society, largely because it is a form of inequality which creates an urgent distress in the hearts, and loins, of young men.... [E]very time a rich man takes an extra wife, another poor man must remain single. If the richest and most powerful 10% of men have, say, four wives each, the bottom 30% of men cannot marry. Young men will take desperate measures to avoid this state.

"The Perils of Polygamy." The Economist, 23 Dec. 2017, pp. 24-26.

Russia has weathered the recession caused by the fall in global oil prices and the West's imposition of economic sanctions (in response to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014). The Economist warns, however, that Russia faces long-term economic stagnation unless it undertakes structural reforms:

https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21732837-russias-recession-has-ended-without-further-reform-growth-will-stagnate-mr-putin-will-win

According to The Economist, the Chinese government is using its growing international influence more assertively. It has built landing strips on artificial islands in the South China Sea in order to press its territorial claim to almost all of the Sea, and has opened its first overseas military base (in Djibouti). It has co-opted politicians and government employees in other countries, and pressured Western universities, academics and media sources to mute their criticism of human rights abuses in China. Moreover, it has increased its surveillance of the political views and activities of Chinese students who live in other countries.

While the trends described in the article are worth noting, I would offer several criticisms of The Economist's analysis. First, it ignores the fact that the United States and Great Britain have engaged in some of the activities the article decries (such as taking over territory in the Pacific to build military bases and co-opting foreign politicians). Second, the article ascribes a number of recent anti-Chinese incidents in Australia to a "backlash" against growing Chinese influence. Most of the incidents described, however, appear to be the products of racism. Suggesting that they result from a "backlash" against Chinese government activity comes dangerously close to explaining away serious misconduct:

https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21732545-and-stealthily-trying-shape-public-opinion-its-favour-how-chinas-sharp-power-muting

The Chinese government has made solid progress is reducing air pollution in Chinese cities. The Economist, however, contends that the country's progress against air pollution has been limited by the government's inconsistent application of its own pollution policies:

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21732581-fierce-restrictions-use-coal-have-got-it-only-so-far-china-has-won-battles-against-air

Russia's former Minister of Economic Development, Alexei Ulyukayev, was convicted of bribery on 15 December and sentenced to eight years in a prison labor camp. He was also fined $2.2 million. The factual allegations against Ulyukayev appeared unlikely: he was accused of demanding a $2 million bribe from Igor Sechin, the chief executive of Rosneft (a majority state-owned oil company worth almost $60 billion) and widely regarded as the second most powerful man in the country. (Sechin is a close confidant of the most powerful man in Russia, President Vladimir Putin). Most Western media analysts attributed Ulyukayev's arrest and conviction to bitter infighting within the Russian elite. Ulyukayev had opposed Rosneft's takeover of Bashneft, a state-owned oil company, earlier this year:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/15/russia-jails-former-economy-minister-alexei-ulyukayev-for-corruption

Negotiations between the British government and the governments of the other members of the European Union (EU) over the terms of Britain's withdrawal from the UK have moved on to a second phase, even though one of the key issues in the first phase of negotiations -- the future of the border between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland -- appears not to have been solved. The Irish government contends that, under the terms of the Good Friday Agreement ending the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland, the UK cannot establish a hard border for goods and services between the Irish Republic and Northern Ireland. The British government appears to agree with this position: at first, it suggested that Northern Ireland might remain inside the EU's customs union and single market while the rest of the United Kingdom withdrew. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest party in Northern Ireland, however, objected to this proposal; the DUP contends that implementing the proposal would effectively create a border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain, thereby severing Northern Ireland from the rest of the United Kingdom. British negotiators were stymied by the DUP's objection because Prime Minister Theresa May's Conservative Government depends on the DUP for its majority in the House of Commons.

In the end, the British and EU negotiators agreed that there would be no hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland and that there would be no de facto border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom. This, of course, is impossible unless the United Kingdom also agrees to stay (more or less) in the EU's customs union and single market after it leaves the EU -- an arrangement that the British government previously rejected because it would entail agreeing to continue to permit workers from the European Union to move to and work in the United Kingdom. (Norway and Switzerland, both non-EU members, are part of the EU's customs union and single market and have agreed to accept the free movement of workers from EU countries into their jurisdictions).

Although hostility to immigrant workers from the European continent fueled much of the "Leave" sentiment expressed during the 2016 Brexit referendum campaign, Britain might be better off if it were to continue to accept workers from the continent. Britain has long depended on workers from continental EU member countries to fill positions in agriculture, banking, construction, health care and hospitality, and has long been able to recruit talented researchers and academics from those countries. Recently, the prospect of Brexit has led to labor shortages in the UK in these fields, and to a decline in the number of researchers willing to take positions in the UK:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/world/europe/britain-european-union-farming-immigration-labor-shortage.html

Under a reform recently announced by Xi Jinping, the President of China and the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party, all Chinese government officials -- and not just those officials who are Party members -- will be subject to the Party's disciplinary institutions. Those institutions will be beefed up and placed under the control of a new body, called the National Supervision Commission. The Commission will be responsible for ferreting out ideological deviation as well as corruption. This means that government officials who are not Party members are now subject to Party discipline for their political beliefs:

https://www.economist.com/news/china/21732136-communist-party-gives-itself-more-policing-and-judicial-powers-china-gets-new-system-curb

Britain's Conservative Government does not have an outright parliamentary majority, and depends on the votes of the Northern Ireland-based Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to maintain its majority on confidence votes and budgetary measures. This gives the DUP a great deal of power over British government policy.

The British Government is currently negotiating the terms of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union (EU). One key issue is the future of the border between the Republic of Ireland, an EU member, and Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. Goods and services now move freely across the border. The creation of a "hard border" between the Republic and Northern Ireland, however, would be economically disadvantageous to the Republic and to Northern Ireland, and could threaten the peace established by the 1998 Good Friday Agreement between Northern Ireland's Unionist and Nationalist communities.

To avoid the establishment of a "hard border" in Ireland, British Prime Minister Theresa May was prepared to leave Northern Ireland in the European Union's customs union and singe market, even if the rest of the United Kingdom eventually left both pursuant to its withdrawal from the EU. This prospect, however, alarmed the DUP. Under such an arrangement, Northern Ireland would be tied more closely to the Republic of Ireland than it would be to the rest of the United Kingdom as the border for customs and immigration purposes would effectively be between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK. The DUP, however, is a stridently unionist party, and is opposed to any Brexit measure that would make Northern Ireland less British and more Irish. Accordingly, the DUP vetoed May's plan to leave Northern Ireland in the EU's customs union and single market -- something it can do because May's Conservative Government depends for its survival on the DUP's support:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-42217735

The Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) of the Nigerian Police Force has been accused of human rights abuses. The Inspector General of the Police Force has responded to the accusations by ordering an investigation into allegations of police brutality:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-42225314

The International Olympic Committee has determined that the Russian Olympic team may not compete in the 2018 Winter Olympic games; those games will be held in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Russian athletes may apply to compete in the games as individuals, but Russia will not be allowed to enter teams in team sports. The Russian flag will not be displayed at the opening ceremonies of the games or at medal ceremonies, nor will the Russian national anthem be played at those ceremonies.

The Russian team has been excluded from the 2018 Winter Games as punishment for the country's maintenance of a massive state-sponsored doping program. That program involved a complex scheme to swap the urine samples taken from Russian athletes at the 2014 Winter Olympics (held in Russia) with clean samples:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/05/sports/olympics/ioc-russia-winter-olympics.html

Mexican voters will choose a new president next summer in what is shaping up to be an unusually complicated campaign.

This week, in a ceremony unchanged from the country's decades of one-party rule, outgoing president Enrique Peña Nieto of the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI), announced that the PRI's 2018 presidential candidate would be the Secretary of Finance, José Antonio Meade. Meade is an intriguing choice: he is not a PRI member, and served for a time as the Secretary of Finance under Peña Nieto's predecessor, Felipe Calderón of the conservative National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional, or PAN). Meade, who holds a PhD in Economics from Yale, appears to be in the mode of the technocrats (técnicos) who came to dominate the PRI near the end of its monopoly on power in Mexico.

Given the PRI's current unpopularity, most polls indicate that perennial progressive candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador is the front-runner in the race to serve as Mexico's next president. López Obrador has left the Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, or PRD) even though he ran as the PRD's presidential candidate in 2006 and 2012. This time, López Obrador is running as the candidate of the National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA), a party he founded in September 2012 to further his political ambitions.

Meanwhile, the conservative PAN, the left-wing PRD and the socialist Citizens' Movement (Movimiento Ciudadano) have formed an alliance, the Citizens' Front (Frente Ciudadano), aimed at preventing the PRI from remaining in power. The Front's probable presidential candidate is PAN President Ricardo Anaya. To appeal to voters who usually support either the PRD or the Citizens' Movement, Anaya has announced his support for a state-provided basic income for all Mexicans.

Finally, Margarita Zavala, the wife of former president Felipe Calderón, has condemned the PAN's alliance with the PRD and the Citizens' Movement. Once thought to be a strong candidate for the PAN's presidential nomination, Zavala left the PAN in October and declared her candidacy for the presidency as an independent. 

This week's Economist provides even more details about this convoluted campaign:  

https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21731873-ruling-party-turns-technocrat-jos-antonio-meade-pris-candidate-mexicos