21 August 2016
The New York Times: Russian Security Agencies Assassinate Putin's Opponents
According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 23 Russian journalists have been murdered for reasons related to their work since Vladimir Putin first became President of Russia in late 1999. Moreover, members of the Russian opposition, and Russian human rights and anti-corruption campaigners, often die under mysterious circumstances. These mysterious deaths take place both inside and outside Russia. According to The New York Times, the mysterious deaths are almost certainly the work of Russian security and intelligence agencies:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/world/europe/moscow-kremlin-silence-critics-poison.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/21/world/europe/moscow-kremlin-silence-critics-poison.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0
19 August 2016
The "Third Wave" of Democratization Recedes in Sub-Saharan Africa
This week's issue of The
Economist includes a thoughtful analysis of the state of democracy in
sub-Saharan Africa. While the region is
far more democratic than it was in 1989, at the end of the Cold War,
democratization in Africa has stalled -- or even reversed -- in recent years:
Behind the Scenes, Communist Party Officials Maneuver for Power in China
Every five years, the Chinese Communist Party conducts a
National Party Congress. Approximately
2500 Party officials from all over China, representing nearly 90 million Party
members, meet to choose the Party’s top leadership: the 205 members of the Party
Central Committee. The newly selected
Central Committee then meets during the National Party Congress to choose, from
among its members, the roughly 24 members of the Party’s powerful Political Bureau
(Politburo) and to choose, from among the members of the Politburo, the 7 (or
sometimes 9) members of the Politburo’s Standing Committee. While policy decisions are made by the
Politburo (and important changes in policy are typically approved by the Central
Committee), the members of the Politburo Standing Committee govern China on a
day-to-day basis.
Decisions about who will serve on the Party’s Central
Committee, Political Bureau, and Politburo Standing Committee, however, are
made well in advance of the National Party Congress; the composition of these
bodies reflects the results of bargaining among the leaders of different groups
within the Party. In other words, the
current leaders of the Party collectively choose their successors; the National Party Congress invariably approves their choices.
The next National Party Congress will be held in the fall of
2017. There will be an unusually large
number of Party leadership positions to fill.
92 of the 205 members of the Party Central Committee will be retiring (Central
Committee members may not be re-selected once they turn 65), while five of the
seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee will be retiring (Standing
Committee members are limited to two five-year terms). As a result, the current leaders of the Party
have already begun maneuvering, behind the scenes, to try to ensure the elevation
of their protégés to positions of power. And while openly campaigning for elevation to a higher position within the Party is considered bad form, younger Party officials have also begun to jockey for positions of greater power:
Extrajudicial Execution in Mexico's War on Narco-Trafficking
The Mexican state of Michoacán has been seriously affected
by drug trafficking and by the Mexican government’s war on narco-trafficking:
it has seen violence between rival drug gangs, violence between drug gangs and
citizen’s vigilante groups, and violence between drug gangs and the Mexican Federal
Police.
In May 2015, the federales
raided a ranch in Michoacán. At the
time, the Federal Police reported that one police officer and 42 suspected drug
gang members had been killed in a firefight.
The Mexican National Human Rights Commission, however, has concluded
that the federales executed 22 of the
drug gang members:
16 August 2016
Putin Fires Chief of Staff, Replaces Him with Relative Unknown
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin replaced his
chief of staff, Sergei Ivanov, with the relatively unknown Anton Vayno. Ivanov began his career as a Committee for
State Security (KGB) agent during the Soviet era; he later served Putin, at
different times, as Russia’s Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister before
becoming his chief of staff. (Ivanov
and Putin served together in the KGB).
Writing in this week’s issue of The New Yorker, Masha Gessen reports that Vayno’s appointment is
troubling, given that his writings are “bizarre” and “frightening.” Gessen, for example, characterizes Vayno’s
2012 book, “The Image of Victory,” as a “recipe for global domination” achieved
by “striking when the opponent least expects it.”
Most Russian analysts view Putin’s change of chief of staff
as the replacement of a powerful and relatively independent official (Ivanov)
with a younger, sycophantically loyal apparatchik
(Vayno). Gessen, however, views Putin’s
decision as a way of asserting his complete control over the Russian government:
Gessen, Masha. “The Very Strange Writings of Putin’s New
Chief of Staff.” The New Yorker 15 Aug. 2016. Condé Nast. Web. 16 Aug.
2016. http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-very-strange-writings-of-putins-new-chief-of-staff
I am grateful to AHS alumnus Lucas Kampman for calling this
article to my attention.
14 August 2016
Iran Executes Nuclear Scientist Who Returned after Defecting to US
In December 2009, one of Iran's most revered clerics, the Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, died in his sleep. His funeral turned into a massive anti-government rally.
Montazeri had been one of the founders of Iran's Islamic Republic in 1979; he broke with the chief architect of that system of government, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1988 and became a leading critic of the regime. Before his death, Montazeri openly criticized Iran's system of government as undemocratic and contrary to Islam, and accused the Iranian government of using "Stalinist" methods.
Anyone tempted to quibble with Montazeri's characterization of the Iranian government's methods would do well to consider the following report, which appeared in this week's edition of The Economist:
Montazeri had been one of the founders of Iran's Islamic Republic in 1979; he broke with the chief architect of that system of government, the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, in 1988 and became a leading critic of the regime. Before his death, Montazeri openly criticized Iran's system of government as undemocratic and contrary to Islam, and accused the Iranian government of using "Stalinist" methods.
Anyone tempted to quibble with Montazeri's characterization of the Iranian government's methods would do well to consider the following report, which appeared in this week's edition of The Economist:
Shahram Amiri, an Iranian scientist who defected and gave America information about the country’s illicit nuclear-weapons programme, was hanged for treason, the Iranian government said. He returned to Iran after threats were made against his family. (Emphasis added.)"Politics This Week." The Economist 13 Aug. 2016: 5. Print.
Judicial Reform in China
China has reformed its judicial system, opening the country's courts to a greater variety of claims brought by ordinary Chinese citizens. At the same time, Chinese courts are handing out long jail terms to human rights lawyers and political activists, as part of President Xi Jinping's on-going crackdown on dissent and activism:
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21704849-communist-party-cracks-down-political-activists-even-it-eases-up-some-less-sensitive
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21704849-communist-party-cracks-down-political-activists-even-it-eases-up-some-less-sensitive
03 August 2016
Nigerian Federal Government Uses Fiscal Crisis to Impose Reform on States
Oil sale proceeds provide 70% of the revenues of the Nigerian federal government. The price of crude oil is less than half of what it was two years ago, and Nigerian oil production has fallen by a third as a result of renewed militant activity in the Niger Delta. (See blog post of 15 July). As a result, the Nigerian federal government has had to make substantial budget cuts.
Nigeria's 36 state governments obtain most of their operating funds from the Nigerian federal government. As the federal government has reduced the amounts it transfers to the states, Nigeria's states have had to make significant cuts in spending on infrastructure construction, education and other social services. The federal government is willing to make emergency loans to Nigeria's state governments -- but only if they start publishing audited accounts of their spending:
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21702783-end-state-sponsored-marriages-just-funny-bit-running-out-road
Nigeria's 36 state governments obtain most of their operating funds from the Nigerian federal government. As the federal government has reduced the amounts it transfers to the states, Nigeria's states have had to make significant cuts in spending on infrastructure construction, education and other social services. The federal government is willing to make emergency loans to Nigeria's state governments -- but only if they start publishing audited accounts of their spending:
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21702783-end-state-sponsored-marriages-just-funny-bit-running-out-road
Women Make Gains but Remain Underrepresented in Parliament
The new Prime Minister of the UK, Theresa May, is a woman. The First Ministers of the devolved governments of both Scotland and Northern Ireland are women. Yet women make up only 29% of the members of Britain's House of Commons. Moreover, "there are fears that things will get harder for women" in British politics:
"The Struggle Continues." The Economist 30 July 2016. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd. Web. 3 Aug 2016. http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21702796-women-lead-westminster-holyrood-and-stormont-equality-still-far-struggle
Kindly note that 19.3% of the members of the US House of Representatives, and 20 of the 100 members of the US Senate, are women.
"The Struggle Continues." The Economist 30 July 2016. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd. Web. 3 Aug 2016. http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21702796-women-lead-westminster-holyrood-and-stormont-equality-still-far-struggle
Kindly note that 19.3% of the members of the US House of Representatives, and 20 of the 100 members of the US Senate, are women.
On Globalization, Brexit and Trump
For most of the 20th century, the primary difference
between right-wing political parties and left-wing political parties in western
democracies was their view of the appropriate role of the government in the
economy. Progressive political parties
favored a robust economic role for the government: they believed that the
government should own and manage such enterprises as post offices, power plants
and railroads, regulate privately-owned businesses, provide a high level of
social services, redistribute income from rich to poor, and ensure full
employment. Conservatives favored a
smaller role for the government in the economy, believing that relatively free
markets do a better job of ensuring full employment and widespread prosperity
than government officials.
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21702791-britain-unusually-open-trade-unusually-bad-mitigating-its-impact-collateral-damage
According to an essay published this week in The Economist, the traditional distinction
between right and left in western democracies is breaking down in the face of
mass immigration and globalization. The
new dividing line is between those who generally support free trade and moderate
levels of immigration, and those who do not.
In Britain, for example, the referendum on continued membership in the
European Union (EU) divided supporters of the two major political parties. In the United States, every president since
World War II has sought to reduce international barriers to trade; this year, the
openness of the US economy to imports has been attacked from both the right
(Trump) and the left (Sanders). The Economist piece examines how mass
immigration and globalization are reordering politics in the US and Europe:
The Economist strongly
supported continued British membership in the EU in the recent Brexit
referendum -- as did most of Britain’s political, business and intellectual
elite. In the hand-wringing that has
followed the decision of the British electorate to withdraw from the EU, the Economist has noted that not all Britons
have profited from the country’s openness to international trade.
Almost every academic economist agrees that free trade
between two countries (or among a group of countries) will lead to greater
output overall and -- assuming that the trade agreement is relatively balanced --
to each of the countries involved. (This
is not to say that any particular trade agreement is advantageous to any particular
country: the devil is in the details). However,
even if a trade agreement benefits a country overall, it will benefit some
people in the country more than others, and may actually hurt some (or many) people
in the country. Thus, the government of
a country that negotiates a trade agreement (because the agreement is, overall,
in the national interest) should use some of the output gains that the country accrues
as a result of the agreement to assist those injured by it. (For example, the government might create vocational
retraining programs for, or provide university tuition assistance to, workers displaced
by outsourcing). If it fails to provide adequate and effective assistance, a
Brexit campaign or a Trump insurgency is a likely result:
Xi Roots Out Corruption -- and Dissent
The Economist reports this week on two recent developments in China. First, President Xi Jinping's crackdown on corruption in the Chinese government and in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has resulted in the arrest of officials who were once very powerful. Xi regards public resentment of corruption in office as the single greatest threat to the Party's continued monopoly on political power in China, and has sought to root out corruption in Chinese public life. Xi's crackdown on corruption has also had the not coincidental result of making Xi the most powerful single official in China in a generation:
A military court in China jailed a retired general, Guo Boxiong, for life for accepting bribes in return for promotions. He is the most senior military official to be convicted of corruption since the Communists came to power in 1949.President Xi has also continued the erosion of civil liberties in Hong Kong. As part of the agreement between China and Britain that restored Chinese sovereignty over Hong Kong, the Chinese government agreed, among other things, to respect freedom of speech, freedom of the press, and the right to demonstrate in the territory. Recently, however, Hong Kong booksellers and journalists have been arrested and imprisoned in mainland China for selling books and writing articles critical of the Chinese government:
Two Hong Kong journalists were imprisoned in [mainland] China for articles they had published in their home territory. Hong Kongers are supposed to have press freedoms not enjoyed in the mainland. But these two journalists, who were arrested in 2014, were charged for mailing copies of their magazines into [mainland] China."Politics This Week." The Economist 30 July 2016: 5. Print.
