AHS Comparative Government

In June, British voters will decide whether the United Kingdom will remain in the European Union (EU).  At this point, the British public is evenly divided between staying in the EU and withdrawing.  An article in this week's issue of The Economist analyzes the arguments made by supporters and opponents of Britain's continued membership in the EU, and the potentially serious consequences of a British withdrawal from the EU:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21693568-david-cameron-will-struggle-win-referendum-britains-eu-membership-if-he-loses

Seven percent of Britons are educated in private schools. Nonetheless, over 70% of Britain's generals and judges, over 60% of its doctors, and over 50% of its senior civil servants, cabinet members, journalists and Oscar winners are alumni of independent schools.  By contrast, "only" about a third of British MPs and corporate chief executives attended private schools:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21693592-posh-professions

In Mexico, the incidence of kidnapping and extortion has decreased in the past year but the murder rate is back up. (The homicide rate is not as high as it was in 2010-12, at the height of the war on drug trafficking; moreover, murder in Mexico is heavily concentrated in a few areas, including Guerrero and Veracruz).  Meanwhile, several of President Enrique Peña Nieto's proposals to reform policing and criminal justice have stalled in the Mexican Congress:

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21693606-after-decline-murder-rate-rising-presidents-crime-fighting-plan-making-slow

The failure of last fall's peaceful pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong has resulted in the radicalization of some young pro-democracy activists.  These activists increasingly favor separation of Hong Kong from China, and see violent resistance to authority as a legitimate means of achieving their goals:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/21/world/asia/hong-kong-indigenous-separatism.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0

On 26 February, Iranians will go to the polls to elect a new Majles and a new Assembly of Religious Experts.  Iran's Majles is the country's parliament: a bill adopted by the Majles becomes a law if it is approved by Iran's President, and survives review by the country's powerful Guardian Council.  The Assembly of Religious Experts selects the country's Leader, the most powerful man in the Iranian political system.  (Although the Leader serves for life, the Assembly of Religious Experts elected this year could well choose Iran's next Leader.  The Assembly of Religious Experts elected this year will serve for eight years; the current Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is 76 years old and suffers from prostate cancer).

Iran's Guardian Council has the power to disqualify candidates for all of the country's elected positions.  This year, the Guardian Council has disqualified roughly 51% of the candidates for the Majles, including nearly all of the candidates favoring significant political and social reform.  (Of the 3000 reformists who filed papers to run for the Majles, only about 100 have been allowed to become candidates).  The Guardian Council also disqualified 80% of the candidates for the Assembly of Religious Experts, including all of the female candidates.  Indeed, the Guardian Council disqualified a Hojjat-al-Islam (a mid-level Shi'ite cleric) named Hassan Khomeini from running for the Assembly of Religious Experts.  Khomeini, who is believed to be sympathetic to calls for reform, is the grandson of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran and its first Leader:

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21693277-choose-any-candidate-you-likeafter-mullahs-have-excluded-reformers-great

During the 2015 general election campaign, British Prime Minister David Cameron promised voters that a Conservative government would renegotiate the terms of Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) and then hold an "in-or-out" referendum on Britain's continued membership in the EU.

This weekend, Cameron persuaded the leaders of the 27 other EU member states to agree to the changes in the terms of Britain's EU membership that Cameron negotiated with European Council President Donald Tusk.  Cameron has set Thursday, June 23, for the referendum in which British voters will decide whether Britain will remain in the EU or whether it will withdraw.

Although the revisions made to the terms of Britain's membership in the EU are largely cosmetic, Cameron and most of the leadership of the Conservative Party will campaign for Britain to remain in the EU.  The opposition Labour Party, the Liberal-Democrats, the Scottish National Party (which favors Scottish independence from the United Kingdom), and Plaid Cymru (a Welsh nationalist party) also support continued British EU membership.

At least seven Conservative Party leaders, however, have announced that they will campaign in favor of British withdrawal from the EU.  They include the Justice Secretary, Michael Gove; the Leader of the House of Commons, Chris Grayling; and the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson.  Johnson, who also serves in the House of Commons, is expected to seek the leadership of the Conservative Party when David Cameron steps down as Party leader; as Cameron has indicated that he will resign as Party leader before the 2020 general election, the next Conservative Party leader will automatically become Britain's next Prime Minister.

The campaign in favor of withdrawal from the EU will also have the strong support of the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), which won 12.6% of the vote in the 2015 British general election.  Opposition to continued British membership in the EU (and to continued immigration to Britain from other EU countries) are UKIP's defining issues:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-35621079

As noted previously, the stakes in this election are extraordinary (see blog post of 7 February 2016).  

The New York Times reported this morning that Chinese "companies and individuals have moved nearly $1 trillion from China" in the past year (10). There are several reasons for this flight of funds from China. First, many Chinese fear that a sharp fall in the value of the country's currency may be in the offing. (China devalued its currency by 4% last summer; the yuan fell another 2.8% against the dollar in January). Second, some Chinese worry that the country may be in for a prolonged period of slow economic growth; they are moving their capital to countries where they see better medium-term growth opportunities.

Bradsher, Keith. "Chinese Start to Lose Confidence in Their Currency." The New York Times 14 Feb. 2016: A10. The New York Times Co. Print.

There is another reason for some Chinese, at least, to move their funds out of China: the country's continuing anti-corruption campaign. Nearly 1500 Chinese government officials, business executives and military officers have been publicly identified as under investigation, expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and/or sentenced to prison terms; thousands more have been investigated but not publicly identified. While the anti-corruption crusade began by disproportionately targeting a number of President Xi Jinping's rivals for power, most of those known to have been investigated recently were in no position to threaten Xi politically. In other words, the anti-corruption campaign may be focused on officials, executives and military officers whom investigators sincerely believe to be corrupt:

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21692928-who-being-investigated-corruption-and-why-portrait-purge

In the campaign that preceded last May's British general election, Prime Minister David Cameron promised voters that he would renegotiate Britain's membership in the European Union (EU) and then hold a referendum on Britain's continued membership in the EU. Cameron made this promise in order to keep Conservative voters hostile to the EU from voting for the United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), a right-wing party opposed to British membership in the EU and, in particular, to immigration to the United Kingdom from other EU member countries. (UKIP did win 12.6% of the vote in that election; Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system, however, limited UKIP to one seat in the House of Commons.)

Cameron won reelection with a majority of the seats in the House of Commons; he must now make good on his promise. Last week, Cameron negotiated a package of changes to the terms of Britain's EU membership with European Council President Donald Tusk. Those changes will be submitted later this month to the leaders of the other 27 EU member states, for their approval. (The other EU leaders will likely approve the changes. First, the changes are rather modest. Second, the other European leaders, for various reasons, would like Britain to remain a member of the EU, even if they resent what they view as Cameron's pandering to the UK's far-right and his strong-arm tactics in renegotiating the terms of Britain's EU membership.)

The Economist argues that the changes negotiated by Cameron are largely cosmetic, but nonetheless sufficient to allow Cameron to hold a referendum in which he and most other Conservative Party leaders can plausibly campaign for Britain to remain in the EU. The referendum will be held within the next year. The stakes will be high. Scottish voters will almost certainly vote heavily for Britain to remain in the EU. If they are outvoted by English voters, and Britain withdraws from the EU as a result, a second Scottish independence referendum would be inevitable. Moreover, under those circumstances, Scotland would probably vote to leave the United Kingdom:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21690053-renegotiation-britains-eu-membership-mainly-theatre-it-may-be-enough-david

This week's issue of The Economist includes an article about Ramzan Kadyrov, the murderous President of the Chechen Republic. (Chechnya is one of the Russian Federation's 85 constituents). According to the article, "Russian repression is unlike that of the Soviet regime, which had a monopoly on violence. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin outsources his terror to thugs like Kadyrov" (49).

"Putin's Chechen Enforcer." The Economist 6 Feb. 2016: 49. The Economist Newspaper Ltd. Print.