19 June 2017
Half of Food Donated to Boko Haram Victims Stolen in Nigeria
In November 2016, the United Nations reported that thousands of people faced imminent starvation, and millions more required humanitarian assistance, in northeastern Nigeria. The prolonged Boko Haram insurgency had disrupted agriculture in the region; retreating Boko Haram fighters, moreover, had stolen seed grains and livestock and had poisoned local streams and wells.
Many countries and aid agencies responded with donations of food. But the Nigerian government reported last week that half of the food donated to Nigeria has been stolen:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40325043
Many countries and aid agencies responded with donations of food. But the Nigerian government reported last week that half of the food donated to Nigeria has been stolen:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-40325043
Thousands across Russia Protest Putin
Protests held last week against Russian President Vladimir Putin drew 150,000 people in 170 cities; about half the protesters were under 30. The police arrested over 1500 demonstrators in Moscow and St. Petersburg; opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who organized the protests, was arrested as he left his apartment building in Moscow. The Economist's report on the demonstrations notes that "[l]ast year Mr Putin’s government created a National Guard, a force of some 400,000 troops headed by his former bodyguard [that reports] directly to the president."
"Demonstration of Intent." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 17 June 2017:47, http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21723439-anti-corruption-activist-chief-threat-vladimir-putin-next-years-election-aleksei. Accessed 19 June 2017.
"Demonstration of Intent." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 17 June 2017:47, http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21723439-anti-corruption-activist-chief-threat-vladimir-putin-next-years-election-aleksei. Accessed 19 June 2017.
In China, the Rule of Law is an "Empty Slogan"
Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the President of China, has promised to establish the rule of law in China. But the Chinese judiciary is not independent of the CCP or of the executive branch of the Chinese government. The Chinese police, moreover, routinely torture criminal suspects. Finally, Chinese human rights lawyers and their families are subjected to harassment, arrest, detention and torture:
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21723460-so-much-strengthening-rule-law-china-torturing-civil-rights-lawyers
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21723460-so-much-strengthening-rule-law-china-torturing-civil-rights-lawyers
Iran Retaliates for Tehran Terrorist Attacks
Iran launched six missiles today at Islamic State (IS) targets in Syria, in retaliation for twin IS terror attacks in Tehran two weeks ago. Those attacks killed 18 people, and were directed at highly symbolic targets: the Majles (Parliament) building, and the Mausoleum of the Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranians were stunned by the two suicide bombings; prior to the attacks, most Iranians believed that their country was relatively immune from terrorism given its sizeable and powerful security forces.
Iranian Authorities Ban Zumba
As Iran has grown more prosperous, Iranians have become more fitness-conscious. Middle class Iranian women have joined gyms and signed up for Zumba classes, just as middle class women have in the West. Recently, however, the Iranian government decreed that Zumba classes are contrary to Islam. (In Iran, dancing is illegal.) Iran's fitness instructors, however, have vowed to press ahead with what they are now calling "advanced aerobics" classes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/17/world/middleeast/iran-zumba-haram.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/17/world/middleeast/iran-zumba-haram.html
Why the British Conservatives Lost Their Majority
The British general election held earlier this month was a
disaster for Prime Minister Theresa May. The Conservative Party she leads lost
its majority in the House of Commons and will have to rely on the support of Northern
Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to form a government and to pass annual
budgets. The new government is inherently unstable, and there is a strong
chance that a new election will take place within the next two years -- and that
May will be replaced as the leader of her party (and as Prime Minister) prior
to that election.
This instability could not come at a worse time for the
United Kingdom. Although most Members of Parliament (MPs) opposed
British withdrawal from the European Union (EU) during last year’s Brexit
referendum campaign, both the Conservative and Labour Parties now support
withdrawal on the grounds that the British people voted for it. Indeed, the British
Government began its negotiations today with the governments of the other
members of the EU over the terms of Britain’s withdrawal, and over its future trading
relationship with the EU. The current instability of the British government doesn’t
necessarily weaken its bargaining position (the UK’s position is exceptionally weak
to begin with), but it does reignite the debate within the UK over what Britain’s
eventual relationship with the EU should be. May favors a “hard Brexit,”
meaning that she is willing to give up Britain’s preferred access to the
European market for goods and services in order to prevent citizens of EU
member countries from immigrating to Britain, and in order to end the ability
of EU officials to impose workplace safety, product safety and environmental regulations
on British businesses. But most MPs (including a substantial number of Conservative MPs) favor a “soft Brexit” in which Britain would maintain its privileged
access to the European market, even if it means continued immigration from EU
countries and continued regulation of British businesses by “Eurocrats” in
Brussels.
Moreover, it turns out that May’s support for a “hard Brexit”
may have cost her party its majority in the House of Commons. The substantial
swing to Labour in this month’s general election was propelled by a greatly
increased turnout among both young voters and well-educated voters -- people who
supported the “remain” side in the Brexit referendum and who believe that a “hard
Brexit” threatens their economic future:
10 June 2017
Hubris May Once Again Fell a British Prime Minister
In April, British Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative
Party had a small majority in the House of Commons. May, concerned that a small
minority of Conservative Members of Parliament (MPs) might have the power to
derail any agreement her government might reach on the terms of British
withdrawal from the European Union (EU), decided to call a “snap election” in
June. At the time, opinion polls suggested that the Conservatives would win
easily, and that the new Parliament would have a much larger Conservative
majority.
During the campaign, however, the polls tightened
considerably. May made a few mistakes, while the leader of the opposition
Labour Party, Jeremy Corbyn, proved a more effective campaigner than expected.
The election was held Thursday. Although the Conservatives won more seats in
the House of Commons than any other party, they emerged eight seats short of a
majority. The Conservatives must, therefore, rely on another party or parties
in the House of Commons to form a government (for May to remain Prime Minister,
a majority of the House of Commons must vote that it has confidence in her and
in her fellow Cabinet members) and to enact legislation.
The last time the Conservatives won an election with fewer
seats than needed to form a majority was 2010; that year, they entered into a
coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrats, a center-left party that came
in third in the 2010 general election. Under that agreement, the
Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats agreed on the policies that their joint
government would pursue for the following five years, and senior members of both
parties became government ministers. The results of this year’s general
election, however, leave the Conservatives without natural coalition partners.
The third largest party in the House of Commons, the Scottish National Party, is
a pro-independence, left-wing party unwilling to join a Conservative-led
coalition government. (The SNP, moreover, would demand a second independence
referendum in Scotland as the price of joining any coalition government -- something
the Conservatives strongly oppose). The Liberal Democrats will not form a
coalition with the Conservatives either: they are implacably opposed to Brexit (which
the Conservatives are pledged to undertake) and they were almost wiped out
politically by their five-year partnership with the Conservatives. (Their
well-educated, left-leaning voters deeply mistrust the Conservative Party).
To form a government, the Conservatives have reached an
agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), the largest Unionist party in
Northern Ireland. (In Northern Ireland, Unionist parties want that region to
remain in the United Kingdom. They draw their support from the Protestant
majority in Northern Ireland. Nationalist parties, on the other hand, want
Northern Ireland to leave the United Kingdom and become part of the Irish
Republic; they draw their support from the Catholic minority in the region.) The
DUP has ten seats in the new Parliament.
The Conservatives are not going to form a coalition
government with the DUP. Instead, the DUP will vote with the Conservatives to
approve the new government and on budget issues; their votes will have to be bargained
for on other issues. This arrangement is not likely to last the maximum
five-year length of the new Parliament, meaning that there will probably be
fresh election during Britain’s Brexit negotiations or immediately after them.
The DUP will also demand substantial concessions from the new government -- more
aid for Northern Ireland, perhaps. They will also want to ensure that Brexit
does not produce a hard border for people or goods between Northern Ireland
and the Irish Republic (something that no one in Ireland, on either side of the
border, wants). The dependence of the Conservatives on the DUP to maintain a parliamentary
majority, moreover, will complicate the British government’s role of “honest
broker” in Northern Ireland’s complex and deeply divided internal politics:
May’s decision to hold an early election may yet cost her
the leadership of her party -- and with it the position of Prime Minister. Her
predecessor, David Cameron, lost his positions as leader of the Conservative
Party and Prime Minister of the United Kingdom abruptly last June. Cameron had
called an unnecessary referendum on continued British membership in the EU in
order to silence anti-EU critics within his own party and to steal general
election votes from the far-right United Kingdom Independence Party; he was
certain that British voters would be far too sensible than to vote for Brexit.
Last June, however, voters stunned the entire British political establishment
by narrowly supporting Brexit -- and Cameron had no choice but to resign.
04 June 2017
Ahead of Party Congress, Xi Replaces Provincial Communist Party Leaders
Every five years, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) holds a National Party Congress. During the Congress, the CCP announces who its leaders will be for the next five years. This is an important announcement: the CCP dominates Chinese political life, and the most significant policy decisions in China are made by the roughly two dozen men and women at the top of the Party. The leaders of the CCP, moreover, also serve in key positions in the Chinese government.
The next CCP National Party Congress will be held this fall. The head of the CCP, Xi Jinping, is expected to remain the Party's General Secretary; the second most powerful person in the CCP, Li Keqiang, is expected to remain in his post as well. (Xi is also expected to be reelected President of the People's Republic of China by the National People's Congress, China's legislature, in March; the National People's Congress is also expected to retain Li as the country's Prime Minister.) Beneath these two top Party positions, however, most of the the key spots in the CCP are currently filled by men scheduled to retire later this year. The various factions within the CCP, therefore, are currently negotiating over who will fill these positions -- and Xi is working hard to ensure that they are filled by men and women who share his vision of China's future.
One sign of Xi's immense power -- and of his determination to put his stamp on the CCP's leadership -- is that, in recent months, he has replaced most of the Party's provincial leaders:
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21722662-xi-jinping-filling-top-posts-alliesto-what-end-provincial-shuffle-shows-power
The next CCP National Party Congress will be held this fall. The head of the CCP, Xi Jinping, is expected to remain the Party's General Secretary; the second most powerful person in the CCP, Li Keqiang, is expected to remain in his post as well. (Xi is also expected to be reelected President of the People's Republic of China by the National People's Congress, China's legislature, in March; the National People's Congress is also expected to retain Li as the country's Prime Minister.) Beneath these two top Party positions, however, most of the the key spots in the CCP are currently filled by men scheduled to retire later this year. The various factions within the CCP, therefore, are currently negotiating over who will fill these positions -- and Xi is working hard to ensure that they are filled by men and women who share his vision of China's future.
One sign of Xi's immense power -- and of his determination to put his stamp on the CCP's leadership -- is that, in recent months, he has replaced most of the Party's provincial leaders:
http://www.economist.com/news/china/21722662-xi-jinping-filling-top-posts-alliesto-what-end-provincial-shuffle-shows-power
Britain to Hold General Election This Week
On Thursday, British voters will go to the polls to elect the 650 members of the House of Commons, the more powerful of the two houses of the British Parliament. The results of the election will determine whether British Prime Minister Theresa May will remain in her position: the Prime Minister, who is always a member of the House of Commons, is chosen by the House and is almost always the leader of the party with the greatest number of seats in the chamber.
May called the election in April, when opinion polls suggested that her Conservative Party would win a general election -- and that it would likely increase its majority in the House of Commons. Since then, the race has tightened considerably; nonetheless, the Conservatives are still favored to win.
The BBC recently published this article explaining the 2017 British General Election to people living outside the UK:
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-2017-40049892
