AHS Comparative Government

The United Kingdom will hold parliamentary elections on 7 May.  Public opinion polling suggests that Britain's two main political parties, the ruling Conservative Party and the opposition Labour Party, will lose votes to minor parties; indeed, the combined share of the vote earned by Britain's two main parties may be the lowest since World War II.  In England, the Conservatives are expected to lose votes to the anti-EU, anti-immigrant United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) while Labour will lose votes to both UKIP and the Green Party.  In Scotland, a Labour stronghold since the Thatcher Government, the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) may win as many as 40 of Scotland's 59 seats in the Westminster Parliament.

The first-past-the-post electoral system used in elections for the Westminster Parliament will ensure that both the Conservatives and Labour will win far greater shares of the seats in Parliament than their respective shares of the vote.  One of the two main parties may yet win a majority of the seats in Parliament and be able to form a government without either a coalition partner or the tacit acquiescence of one or more of the minor parties.  Nonetheless, a coalition government (with different coalition partners than the current Conservative-Liberal Democrat government) or a minority government (in which the party with a plurality of the seats in Parliament forms a government without a built-in majority, with one or more of the minor parties abstaining on confidence motions to permit it to do so) looks increasingly likely.

In a lengthy article, The Economist examines the collapse in support for Britain's major political parties and its likely effect on this year's general election.  The Economist also suggests that, if Britain's first-past-the-post electoral system delivers a victory to one of Britain's two main political parties far out of proportion to its share of the vote, demands to replace that system with some form of proportional representation may become unstoppable:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21644142-two-party-political-system-under-unprecedented-pressure-breaking-point

Earlier this week, former Nigerian president Olusegun Obasanjo quit the People's Democratic Party (PDP), the political party that has dominated Nigerian politics since the country returned to civilian rule in 1999.  Obasanjo helped to found the PDP and headed the party while serving as Nigeria's president from 1999 to 2007.

Obasanjo also condemned incumbent Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan, the PDP candidate in this year's Nigerian presidential election, as ineffectual and corrupt, contending that the recent postponement of the election (from 14 February to 28 March) demonstrated that Jonathan was prepared to cling to power by undemocratic means.  Obasanjo had previously announced his support for opposition candidate Muhammadu Buhari in this year's presidential election:

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21644226-dark-omens-countrys-democracy-grim-reading

Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex), Mexico's state-owned oil and natural gas company, is facing a growing problem: the theft of gasoline from its pipelines.  In 2014, Pemex lost $1.14 billion to gasoline pilferage, more than twice what it lost to pilferage in 2013.

Gasoline thieves -- including drug gang members and current and former Pemex employees -- steal gasoline by tapping into Pemex pipelines; this often results in environmentally hazardous gasoline spills, and even explosions.  To curb the thefts, Pemex will begin transporting the gasoline in its pipelines without a chemical that must be added to gasoline before it can be used as vehicle fuel.  Mexican law enforcement officials are bracing for a new problem -- thefts of the chemical additive:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/18/mexico-pemex-theft-idUSL1N0VS00X20150218

With the relationship between Russia and the West more acrimonious and less predictable than at any time in the past thirty years, a lengthy article in The Economist analyzes current Russian foreign and military policy.  The article examines Russia's geopolitical goals in invading Crimea and eastern Ukraine, and in threatening to stir up trouble in the Baltic states; it also examines Russian President Vladimir Putin's political goals in reinventing himself as a champion of Russian nationalism, religious orthodoxy and cultural conservatism.  The article, moreover, evaluates the success of Russia's post-2008 efforts to modernize its military, and Putin's attempts to blunt European opposition to Russian adventurism by building alliances with both ultra-nationalist right-wing and anti-capitalist left-wing parties in western Europe:

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21643220-russias-aggression-ukraine-part-broader-and-more-dangerous-confrontation

Chinese President Xi Jinping's anti-corruption campaign has reached the highest levels of the People's Liberation Army.  Sixteen senior officers are under investigation for, or have been charged with, corruption.  One officer facing trial on corruption charges, General Xu Caihou, served as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commissions of the People's Republic of China and the Chinese Communist Party from 2004 to 2012.  Xu also served as a member of the CCP's Political Bureau between 2007 and 2012:

http://www.economist.com/news/china/21643225-xi-jinping-flexes-his-muscle-against-army-corruption-rank-and-vile

Mao Zedong once observed that "[t]he masses have a potentially inexhaustible enthusiasm for socialism."  To ensure that they still do, the world's largest political party recently released a slick three minute publicity video.  The piece reminds Chinese citizens, none too subtly, how far their country has come under Communist Party leadership.  While the piece acknowledges the country's challenges -- unequal development and pollution -- it suggests that the Chinese Communist Party (alone) can be trusted to solve those problems:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owiRgZZK0uM

I am grateful to AHS alumnus Zian Liu for sending me this video. 

The Mexican Congress is currently debating a series of proposed reforms aimed at combating political corruption.  However, Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto's decision to appoint a special investigator to look into allegations of corruption that have been leveled against him, First Lady Angélica Rivera, and Finance Minister Luis Videgaray will do little to clear the air; the special investigator will be unable to delve into the contracts on which the allegations are based.  Whether appointing a special investigator with limted powers of investigation will do much to restore Peña Nieto's credibility or popularity remains to be seen:

http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21642355-mixed-messages-new-anti-corruption-campaign-false-start

Citing security concerns, Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission has postponed that country's presidential and National Assembly elections by six weeks.  The move is certain to be controversial: the Nigerian presidential election is expected to be the closest in the country's history.  Moreover, the elections are being held in the midst of a widespread jihadi insurgency in northeastern Nigeria:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-31221545

Prior to the postponement of the election, The Economist published an article examining the political weakness of Nigeria's incumbent president, Goodluck Jonathan, and the strengths and weaknesses of his challenger, Muhammadu Buhari.  Buhari is a former Nigerian military ruler:

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21642236-discredited-ruling-party-faces-its-greatest-electoral-test-yet-bad-luck

This week's issue of The Economist also includes a brief article that recounts Nigeria's history of election fraud and election-related violence:

http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21642240-genuine-democracy-has-been-slow-take-root-hook-crook-or-chequebook

Amid a crackdown on dissent at China's universities, Chinese Education Minister Yuan Guiren has warned academics to avoid criticizing the country's leaders and system of government, and to eschew textbooks that promote "Western values:"

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-31052682

I am grateful to AHS alumnus Reza Rezvani for calling this article to my attention.

Confronted with an economic crisis that is eroding his popularity, Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to increase his standing with the Russian public by launching a new offensive in the Russian incursion into eastern Ukraine.  (Russia's involvement in eastern Ukraine continues to enjoy broad public support: it has been presented to the Russian public as essential to protect the freedom of the Russian-speaking residents of eastern Ukraine from both NATO aggrandizement and Ukrainian "fascism.")  Putin has also organized a paramilitary force of veterans and thugs that can be mobilized rapidly to break up anti-Putin protests; the force has already attacked gatherings of Putin opponents.  (Students of European history may recall that Mussolini's blackshirts served a similar function in pre-war Italy, while Hitler's brownshirts played a crucial role in the Nazi consolidation of power).

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21641278-russian-president-stepping-up-both-war-ukraine-and-his-confrontational-rhetoric?spc=scode&spv=xm&ah=9d7f7ab945510a56fa6d37c30b6f1709

President Putin and his supporters have long used violence to silence critics.  In 2006, a former KGB agent, Andrei Lugovoi, poisoned Alexander Litvinenko in London.  Lugovoi is believed to have slipped a radioactive isotope, polonium-210, into Litvinenko's tea.  Litvinenko, a former Russian FSB agent who was highly critical of Putin, had fled Russia for exile in Britain; he died a slow, agonizing death from radiation poisoning.  (The Russian government has since turned down British requests that Lugovoi be extradited to the United Kingdom to stand trial; the Russian Constitution forbids the extradition of Russian citizens to foreign countries.  Lugovoi, moreover, is immune from prosecution in Russia: since 2007, he has been a member of the Russian State Duma for the far-right Liberal Democratic Party of Russia).

This week, a British judge began an inquiry into the murder of Alexander Litvinenko.  While much of the inquiry will be held in public, at least some of the evidence will be presented in secret; Litvinenko had ties to British intelligence.  This week, The Economist reported that evidence will be presented to the inquiry in secret session demonstrating that senior Russian officials knew about and approved the plot to kill Litvinenko:

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21641286-truth-perhaps-about-kremlin-hit-jobbut-little-prospect-justice-murder-most-mystifying