29 July 2018

Nigerian Senators Switch Parties

Earlier this week,
[m]ore than a dozen senators defected from Nigeria’s ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, to join the [opposition] People’s Democratic Party. The defections may weaken the campaign of [Nigerian President] Muhammadu Buhari [of the APC] for a second term in office in next year’s ... election.
"Politics This Week." The Economist, 28 July 2018, p. 5.

Quotas for Female Political Candidates in Latin America

In 1991, Argentina passed a law requiring each of the country's political parties to nominate a minimum fraction of female candidates. Since then, most Latin American countries have established quotas for women candidates. Although widely circumvented at first, the laws have been tightened over the years, with the result that the representation of women in legislative bodies in Latin America is quite high by international standards. In Mexico, for example, nearly half the candidates elected to Congress earlier this month were women. This week, The Economist examines the use of gender quotas for political candidates and asks whether the election of more women to legislative bodies has an effect on public policy:

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2018/07/26/latin-america-has-embraced-quotas-for-female-political-candidates


Russian Government Moves against Private Graduate Programs in the Social Sciences

Earlier this week, the Russian government rescinded the accreditation of the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences, a private Social Science graduate school with close links to the United Kingdom's University of Manchester. The move follows the revocation last year of the accreditation of the European University at St. Petersburg, another private graduate school focused on the Social Sciences with ties to Western universities.

The loss of accreditation means, at a minimum, that students at the Moscow School of Social and Economic Sciences will be ineligible for government-funded scholarships and exemptions from military service. But the loss could end all instruction at the School: the European University is no longer permitted to accept or educate students.

Given that both graduate programs had long met Western standards of instructional quality, the Russian government's withdrawal of accreditation of the schools is being interpreted as an effort to destroy institutions where students might hear statements of fact or analyses of events that are at odds with the official views of the Russian government:

https://apnews.com/d242f21a841d47df836754276595d3d6

The Belt and Road Initiative

Since 2013, China has been pursuing the “Belt and Road Initiative” -- a plan to increase trade between China and countries in Southeast Asia, Central Asia and Europe by building a network of improved port facilities along the Indian Ocean and the Red Sea, and by building railroads and highways across the Eurasian land mass. To develop trade facilities in these regions, the Chinese Government (and Chinese state-owned banks) lend money to participating countries; those countries then hire Chinese companies (which mostly hire Chinese workers) to build new port, transportation and telecommunications infrastructure. The Chinese Government insists that the Initiative will benefit all of the countries involved. Critics of the Initiative, however, contend that it is a neo-imperialist ploy to gain privileged access to resources and markets in Southeast and Central Asia -- and to gain leverage over governments in those regions by lending them large sums of money.

This week, The Economist weighs in with its own analysis of the Initiative:


21 July 2018

British Government's Brexit Plan Divides Ruling Conservative Party

In a marathon meeting at Chequers, the British Prime Minister’s country residence, the British Cabinet finally agreed upon a proposal it will make to the other current members of the European Union (EU) regarding Britain’s post-Brexit trade relationship with the EU. 

Under the proposal, goods will continue to move without tariffs or other trade restrictions between the United Kingdom and the rest of the EU. Critically, this means that goods will continue to move freely across the border between Northern Ireland, which is part of the UK, and the Republic of Ireland. As a practical matter, this means that production of goods in the UK for export to the EU will have to abide by workplace safety, environmental and product quality standards established by the EU, even though the UK will no longer play a role in establishing those standards. (This provision outraged hardline Brexit supporters). Moreover, the proposal contemplates that Britain will charge EU tariffs on goods coming into Britain from non-EU members if the goods are going to be re-exported (as they are or as part of some other good) to an EU country. Britain, however, will be able to charge lower tariffs (or even no tariffs at all) on goods imported to the UK from non-EU countries for consumption in the UK. This provision will allow Britain to negotiate free-trade deals with other countries, such as the United States. (The opposition Labour Party has criticized this provision as unworkable; the other members of the EU may well come to the same conclusion and reject it, fearing that goods imported duty-free into the UK will be stamped “Made in the UK” and re-exported duty-free to the EU). 

The British government’s proposal envisions that the UK will leave the EU’s common market for services; this almost certainly means a loss of jobs in Britain’s banking, accounting, legal services and advertising sectors. (Major banks are already dismissing British employees at their London offices and replacing them with non-British staff at their Paris and Frankfurt offices). The British government appears to recognize that the other members of the EU will not allow Britain to retain the economic relationship it now has with the rest of the EU unless it also agrees that citizens of EU counties will have the right to live and work in the UK. As the successful Brexit campaign was (to put it mildly) fueled by anti-immigrant attitudes, the British government will not accept any deal with the EU that continues to allow “the free movement of people” between the EU and the UK. The British government is thus prepared to sacrifice access to the EU’s common market for services in order to end immigration to the UK from other EU countries:

The British Cabinet's proposal drew immediate criticism from hardline supporters of Brexit. Indeed, several members of the British cabinet who were present at the Chequers meeting, and who participated in crafting the proposal, resigned from the Cabinet in the days following the meeting, saying that they could not support the proposal. The Cabinet members who resigned included the Foreign Secretary, Boris Johnson, and the Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union, David Davis. While Johnson and Davis have been replaced with Cabinet members whose views are more in line with those of the Prime Minister, Theresa May, they remain Conservative members of Parliament -- where they may vote against future Brexit-related measures sponsored by the government (Prime Minister May’s Conservative Party already lacks a majority in the House of Commons), and even try to remove May as the leader of the Conservative Party (and, therefore, as Prime Minister):

The British government’s proposal has divided the governing Conservative Party and drawn sharp criticism from the opposition Labour Party. And it hasn’t yet been presented to the other members of the EU -- let alone been approved by them.

20 July 2018

"The Most Civilized Step That Any Country Has Ever Taken”

This summer marks the 70th anniversary of the establishment of Britain's National Health Service (NHS). The most popular and respected institution in the United Kingdom, the NHS was the world's first healthcare system to be available to all residents, financed by general taxation and "free at the point of delivery." The NHS, however, faces significant challenges. First, it has been chronically underfunded since the British government adopted fiscal austerity measures in 2010. Second, the British population is ageing and, therefore, has increasingly greater -- and more expensive -- medical needs. Finally, medical technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated and costly.

British Prime Minister Theresa May has promised a significant increase in the budget of the NHS. She has not yet explained how that increase will be funded:

https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/06/21/theresa-mays-lacklustre-plan-for-the-nhs

Come on People Now, Spy on Your Brother

When Mao Zedong governed China, every urban neighborhood had a "neighborhood committee" that paid close attention to the activities and attitudes of neighborhood residents, and promptly informed the authorities if any resident seemed likely to cause trouble, or expressed counter-revolutionary attitudes. This system of social control largely disintegrated after 1978, as China modernized economically, and as China's cities grew dramatically with the arrival of hundreds of millions of migrants from the countryside.

In recent years, however, the Chinese government has reintroduced neighborhood-level social control in China's cities; the new system is generally known as "grid management." Grid management involves large numbers of local residents in keeping tabs on their neighbors; in one Beijing neighborhood, one in seven residents "plays some role in public-security work."

"China Wants Eyes and Ears on Every Street." The Economist, 28 June 2018, https://www.economist.com/china/2018/06/28/china-wants-eyes-and-ears-on-every-street. Accessed 20 July 2018.

Russians to Work Longer and Pay Higher Taxes

The Russian government has announced plans to raise the ages at which it will pay pensions to the country's senior citizens. The retirement age for men will rise from 60 to 65 over the next ten years; the retirement age for women will rise from 55 to 63 over the next 16 years. The Russian government has also announced that the value added tax (a form of sales tax) will increase from 18% to 20%.

The proposed change in retirement ages has drawn significant opposition: millions of Russians have signed an online petition against the proposal. Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating, moreover, has fallen to 72%:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2018/06/30/russia-will-raise-pension-ages-that-date-back-to-stalin

Tehranis Protest Iran's High Level of Inflation

Street protests broke out in Tehran in late June; demonstrators were angered by Iran's high rate of inflation. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate by Iranian standards, had hoped that the nuclear materials agreement he negotiated with the international community in 2015 would lead to improved economic conditions in the country by resulting in increased trade with and investment from other countries. (That agreement required Iran to end its enrichment of nuclear fuel and to surrender its existing stock of enriched fuel; in return, the international community relaxed many of the economic sanctions imposed on Iran for violating its obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty). But hardliners in the Iranian government insisted on continuing the country's ballistic missile tests, leading the Obama Administration to leave some American sanctions on Iran (not covered by the agreement) in place and, later, giving the Trump Administration an excuse to withdraw the United States from the agreement entirely. With tough American sanctions on Iran (and on banks and businesses anywhere in the world that do business in Iran) due to take effect once again, Iran is finding it difficult to make new trade agreements with other countries; few banks and businesses, moreover. are willing to invest in the country. This has precipitated a collapse in the value of Iran's currency, resulting in annual inflation rates as high as 200%:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/06/30/irans-anaemic-economy-is-pushing-people-over-the-edge

19 July 2018

Boko Haram and the Growth of Islamist Extremist Violence in Africa

Only weeks after another mass kidnapping of schoolgirls in northeastern Nigeria, The Economist has published an in-depth look at the Boko Harm insurgency in that region. The article examines the origins of Boko Haram and the reasons for its continued ability to carry out acts of terrorism; the article contends, among other things, that heavy-handed attempts by the Nigerian military to stamp out Boko Haram, which have entailed serious human rights abuses against local civilians, have helped the insurgents recruit new fighters. Finally, the article locates the Boko Harm insurgency within a worrying trend toward Islamist extremist violence in Africa. African jihadi insurgent groups, moreover, are being trained and supplied by Islamic State and al-Qaeda:

https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2018/07/14/the-fight-against-islamic-state-is-moving-to-africa

After Two Unsuccessful Attempts, López Obrador Elected President of Mexico

The Mexican left won a decisive victory in federal elections held earlier this month. Andrés Manuel López Obrador of the left-wing National Regeneration Movement (Movimiento Regeneración Nacional, or MORENA) was elected president with 53.19% of the vote. López Obrador (popularly referred to as AMLO) will take office on 1 December. AMLO ran for president unsuccessfully in 2006 and 2012 as the candidate of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (Partido de la Revolución Democrática, or PRD), an older left-wing party; AMLO and his closest supporters left the PRD to establish MORENA as a political party in 2014, when PRD Senators and Deputies supported several economic liberalization measures proposed by Mexico’s current president, Enrique Peña Nieto of the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (Partido Revolucionario Institucional, or PRI).

Ricardo Anaya of the conservative National Action Party (Partido Acción Nacional, or PAN) came in second in this year’s presidential balloting, with 22.28% of the vote. Anaya was supported by the progressive PRD and by the socialist Citizens' Movement (Movimiento Ciudadano); to secure their support, Anaya announced that, if elected, he would seek to establish a state-provided basic income for all Mexicans. (Mexico already has a highly successful conditional cash transfer program, Oportunidades, that serves impoverished families. Families qualifying for Oportunidades receive a monthly stipend, paid directly to their debit card accounts, so long as their children under the age of 16 attend school and have regular check-ups at government-funded health clinics.)

Voters also punished the governing PRI by giving its candidate, José Antonio Meade, only 16.41% of the vote. The current president, Peña Nieto of the PRI, is highly unpopular in Mexico. He is widely seen as both corrupt and unable to curb the country’s soaring homicide rate:


MORENA and its electoral coalition partners also won majorities in both the Mexican Chamber of Deputies (the lower house of the Mexican Congress) and the Mexican Senate. In the Chamber of Deputies, MORENA and its allies will hold 307 of the 500 seats; however, 55 of those seats will be occupied by Deputies from the normally conservative Social Encounter Party (Partido Encuentro Social, or PES). At the same time, the PRD and the Citizens' Movement will hold 48 seats, giving AMLO the potential to make up for defections of support from the PES, and even to secure a 2/3 legislative majority. In the Senate, MORENA and its allies will hold 68 of the 128 seats. Of those, 7 will be from the PES; AMLO will either have to keep the PES on board, or rely on votes from the 15 Senators from the PRD and the Citizens' Movement. If AMLO can maintain support for his initiatives from the PES, and gain support for them from the PRD and the Citizens' Movement, he will be very close to enjoying a 2/3 majority in the Senate:


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