29 May 2012

China's Continued Economic Growth May Depend on Political Reform

Over the past thirty years, economic liberalization (i.e., the reduction of the role of the state in the economy) in China has resulted in spectacular economic progress: living standards have improved dramatically, lifting nearly 400 million people out of poverty. Political reform, however, stalled after 1989, when the People's Liberation Army was called out to quash pro-democracy protests in Beijing.  In an opinion piece in Sunday's New York Times, James Fallows argues that China will not continue to make economic progress unless it embraces political liberalization.  This would entail making state institutions subject to the rule of law, eliminating political controls on speech and the formation of civil society organizations, and holding Chinese officials accountable to the citizenry:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/27/opinion/sunday/can-china-escape-the-low-wage-trap.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

26 May 2012

Peña Nieto Calls for New Strategy in War Against Drug Cartels

Enrique Peña Nieto, the candidate of Mexico's Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) in July's presidential election, has called for changing the focus of the Mexican government's war on drug gangs.  Peña Nieto, the frontrunner in the race, has said that as president he would concentrate police resources on combating such violent crimes as murder and kidnapping, rather than on drug trafficking per se:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/05/26/MNI31ONNP0.DTL

Peña Nieto's call for a new strategy in the war against the cartels comes as drug-related homicides in Mexico have dipped.  This does not result from success in curbing the influence or rapacity of the drug gangs; the decline in murders results from the victory of a single cartel over weaker gangs in different parts of the country.  Moreover, democracy in Mexico is being eroded by continuing attacks on Mexican journalists and continuing threats against elected officials:

http://www.economist.com/node/21555593

20 May 2012

Maintaining Stability? Important. Obeying the Law? Not So Much.

An article in the 12 May 2012 issue of The Economist examines the reasons why the rule of law is not well established in China. One of the reasons that Chinese Communist Party officials pay relatively little attention to legal norms is that the primary criteria on which they are evaluated by their superiors include "maintaining stability" and "[promoting] economic development;" abiding by Chinese law is a relatively minor consideration:

http://www.economist.com/node/21554561

12 May 2012

Mexico's Next President?

Enrique Peña Nieto, the presidential candidate of Mexico's Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), is invariably described in US media reports as "telegenic." His wife, Angelica Rivera de Peña, is a popular telenovela star. Celebrity politics has arrived in Mexico:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2012/05/09/MNHC1OFKQR.DTL

09 May 2012

Putin, Medvedev Trade Places Yet Again

Vladimir Putin was inaugurated Monday to his third full term as Russia's president.  His choice of prime minister, Dmitri Medvedev, was approved by the Russian State Duma (the lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly) the next day.  Medvedev recently completed a term as president of Russia, during which Putin served as Medvedev's prime minister.  (Putin, who previously served as president from 1999 to 2008, was constitutionally ineligible to run for reelection in 2008, so he and then-Prime Minister Medvedev switched jobs. Putin nonetheless remained firmly in charge of Russia during Medvedev's presidency).

 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/09/world/europe/slight-hiccup-as-putin-and-medvedev-switch-jobs-in-russia.html

06 May 2012

Labour Makes Gains in British Local Elections

On Thursday, the United Kingdom held local elections.  Although voter turnout was low (at 32% of eligible voters), the British electorate handed a number of stunning defeats to the country's ruling Conservative-Liberal Democrat governing coalition.  The Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats lost council seats throughout the country to the opposition Labour Party.  In addition, voters in ten British cities were asked to approve coalition government proposals for changing their systems of local government; the government's proposals were defeated in nine of those cities.

The only bight spot for the Tories (as the Conservatives have been known informally for centuries) was the reelection of London's Conservative mayor, Boris Johnson.  If, as many Conservatives fear, the Conservatives are defeated in the next general election (which must be held before May 2015), Johnson stands to become the next Conservative Party leader:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17920848

05 May 2012

Mexican Drug Cartels Continue Assault on Press Freedom

For the past several years, Mexico's drug cartels have murdered journalists who report on drug violence and corruption, in an effort to prevent media coverage of these topics.  Four Veracruz journalists were killed this week alone:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/may/04/mexico-journalists-killed-drug-cartels

Hardline Conservatives Defeat Conservative Hardliners in Majles Elections

Iran held a second round of elections for its Majles (parliament) yesterday. For the most part, the elections pitted hardline pro-regime supporters of Iran's Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, against hardline pro-regime supporters of Iran's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; reformist candidates were not permitted to run, and called for their supporters to boycott the elections.

Khamenei supporters, who won a majority of the seats in the Majles in March's first round of elections, defeated Ahmadinejad supporters in most of yesterday's elections:

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-17969170

Bomb Attacks in Dagestan Kill 13

Ingushetia, Chechnya and Dagestan are three republics within the Russian Federation. Located in southern Russia, they are separated by the Caucasus Mountains from Georgia and Azerbaijan, two independent countries that were once part of the Russian Empire and, later, the Soviet Union. The people who live in these three republics are predominantly non-Russian; moreover, most of the people who live in these republics practice Sunni Islam.

Since 1991, Russia has fought two wars in Chechnya against Chechen separatists. The Second Chechen War was conducted between 1999 and 2004, during Vladimir Putin's first years as president of Russia. Russia's scorched-earth tactics in the Second Chechen War destroyed the Chechen separatists as a fighting force, though Russia continues to be plagued by Chechen separatist terrorism. Those tactics also destroyed much of Chechnya.

In recent years, violent separatist attacks have increased in Ingushetia (to the west of Chechnya) and in Dagestan (to the east).  The violence in Dagestan is of particular concern to Moscow; the republic is a significant producer of high-quality oil.

Earlier this week, 13 people were killed when car bombs exploded in Makhachkala, Dagestan's capital. The attack came days before Putin's inauguration to his third full term as Russia's president. (The Russian Constitution barred Putin from serving a third consecutive term as president after May 2008; between May 2008 and May 2012, he governed as Russia's Prime Minister while a trusted aide, Dmitri Medvedev, served as Russia's president).

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=152024444

02 May 2012

The Economist: The Chongqing Model Was Not Unique

When Bo Xilai headed the Chinese Communist Party in Chongqing, the policies he pursued were often contrasted with the policies pursued by other Chinese urban leaders.  An article in this week's issue of The Economist appraises Bo's governance of Chongqing in the wake of his recent dismissal and disgrace.  According to The Economist,  Bo's policies were not significantly different from the policies enacted in most other Chinese cities; what set Bo apart was his incessant self-promotion:

http://www.economist.com/node/21553495

Resistance Forms to Okonjo-Iweala's Economic Reform Measures

An article in this week's issue of The Economist examines the resistance confronting Nigerian Finance Minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala's efforts to reform the Nigerian economy:

http://www.economist.com/node/21553460

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