29 October 2017
Biafra, Fifty Years On
Fifty years ago, a predominantly Igbo-speaking region of southeastern Nigeria declared independence, and formed the short-lived state of Biafra. The secession of Biafa from Nigeria touched off a brutal civil war in which hundreds of thousands of combatants were killed and in which more than one million Biafrans -- most of them children -- starved to death.
In recent years, Igbo nationalism has reemerged. The heavy-handed response of the Nigerian military to any expression of that nationalism has only led to increased resentment in southeastern Nigeria, and to a new secessionist movement:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21730658-old-resentments-are-starting-simmer-once-more-biafran-separatists-are-gaining
In recent years, Igbo nationalism has reemerged. The heavy-handed response of the Nigerian military to any expression of that nationalism has only led to increased resentment in southeastern Nigeria, and to a new secessionist movement:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21730658-old-resentments-are-starting-simmer-once-more-biafran-separatists-are-gaining
But Will There Be a New Little Red Book?
The 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party concluded this week with the reelection of Xi Jinping, the President of China, as the Party's General Secretary. The Party's constitution was amended, moreover, to make it clear that Xi is the most important and powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Finally, five men were elevated to the Standing Committee of the Party's Political Bureau to replace the five Standing Committee members who retired. The Standing Committee will continue to have seven members (the other members are Xi, who heads the Standing Committee, and Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang).
None of the new members of the Standing Committee appears to have the gravitas or the relative youth necessary to succeed Xi in five years. This suggests that the principle that no person should lead the Chinese Communist Party for longer than ten years (a principle dating back to Deng Xiaoping's leadership of the Party in the 1980s) will likely be scuttled at the 20th Party Congress in 2022. Xi's tenure as Party leader may last for several decades:
https://www.economist.com/news/china/21730741-it-his-wield-life-chinas-communist-party-has-blessed-power-its-leader
None of the new members of the Standing Committee appears to have the gravitas or the relative youth necessary to succeed Xi in five years. This suggests that the principle that no person should lead the Chinese Communist Party for longer than ten years (a principle dating back to Deng Xiaoping's leadership of the Party in the 1980s) will likely be scuttled at the 20th Party Congress in 2022. Xi's tenure as Party leader may last for several decades:
https://www.economist.com/news/china/21730741-it-his-wield-life-chinas-communist-party-has-blessed-power-its-leader
No Celebrations Planned for the Centenary of Red October
In 1917, Russia had two revolutions. The first, in February, overthrew the monarchy. The second, in October, brought Vladimir Lenin's Bolsheviks to power.
The Russian government is not marking the centenary of these events. To do so would require Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize publicly that his own, neo-Tsarist regime might be swept away. While Putin has succeeded in establishing an autocratic regime with the support of the Russian people, he has done little to prepare Russia for his inevitable departure from power:
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21730644-ignoring-its-lessons-dangerous-russia-vladimir-putin-wants-forget-revolution
The Russian government is not marking the centenary of these events. To do so would require Russian President Vladimir Putin to recognize publicly that his own, neo-Tsarist regime might be swept away. While Putin has succeeded in establishing an autocratic regime with the support of the Russian people, he has done little to prepare Russia for his inevitable departure from power:
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21730644-ignoring-its-lessons-dangerous-russia-vladimir-putin-wants-forget-revolution
22 October 2017
Rouhani Takes on the Revolutionary Guards
Since winning reelection earlier this year, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has moved to reduce the outsize role played by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in the country's economy. Rouhani has also sought to prosecute corruption in the Revolutionary Guards. Rouhani appears to have the support of Iran's religious and political Leader, the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in his efforts to promote a more open, competitive and honest economy:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/world/middleeast/iran-revolutionary-guards.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/21/world/middleeast/iran-revolutionary-guards.html
21 October 2017
Navalny Runs for President (But He's Not Actually Eligible)
In late 2011 and early 2012, Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny led huge demonstrations in Moscow and St. Petersburg to protest apparent fraud in the Russian State Duma elections held in December 2011. A frequent critic of corruption in the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, Navalny famously characterized Putin's United Russia Party as a party of "crooks and thieves."
Navalny is now planning to challenge Putin in next year's presidential election. He is campaigning aggressively, despite repeated stints in jail and repeated physical attacks. (One such attack cost him 80% of the sight in his right eye.) However, Navalny's 2012 conviction on spurious embezzlement charges disqualifies his candidacy. And even if he were eligible to run, he'd be a long-shot candidate. Putin's approval rating stands at 83%:
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21730447-kremlin-says-he-cannot-run-president-he-running-anyway-alexei-navalny-tells
Navalny is now planning to challenge Putin in next year's presidential election. He is campaigning aggressively, despite repeated stints in jail and repeated physical attacks. (One such attack cost him 80% of the sight in his right eye.) However, Navalny's 2012 conviction on spurious embezzlement charges disqualifies his candidacy. And even if he were eligible to run, he'd be a long-shot candidate. Putin's approval rating stands at 83%:
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21730447-kremlin-says-he-cannot-run-president-he-running-anyway-alexei-navalny-tells
Minority Conservative Government Losing Parliamentary Votes on Austerity Measures
Britain's Conservative Government lacks a majority in the House of Commons. The confidence-and-supply agreement between the Conservatives and Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party ensures that the Government has a majority on confidence motions and appropriations measures. On all other questions, however, British Prime Minister Theresa May risks suffering a loss in Parliament.
Since the Conservatives lost their majority in the June general election, the House of Commons has passed measures, opposed by the Conservative Government, calling on the Government: 1) to eliminate the 1% per year cap on pay increases for National Health Service employees; 2) to freeze university tuition at current levels; and 3) to halt, at least temporarily, its implementation of a welfare system reform that appears to be causing serious hardship to low-income people. While all three of these votes were non-binding, they have effectively prevented the May Government from maintaining or pursuing these unpopular austerity measures.
Since the Conservatives lost their majority in the June general election, the House of Commons has passed measures, opposed by the Conservative Government, calling on the Government: 1) to eliminate the 1% per year cap on pay increases for National Health Service employees; 2) to freeze university tuition at current levels; and 3) to halt, at least temporarily, its implementation of a welfare system reform that appears to be causing serious hardship to low-income people. While all three of these votes were non-binding, they have effectively prevented the May Government from maintaining or pursuing these unpopular austerity measures.
15 October 2017
Five More Years
This morning, Ian Johnson of The New York Times presented his analysis of Xi Jinping's first five-year term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Xi is expected to be chosen to serve a second term as head of the CCP at the Party Congress that will begin this week in Beijing.
Johnson doubts that Xi will follow the precedent established by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, his immediate predecessors as General Secretary of the CCP, of retiring (at least formally) from public life at the end of his second term at the helm of the Party:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/sunday-review/xi-jinping-china.html?ref=todayspaper
Johnson doubts that Xi will follow the precedent established by Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, his immediate predecessors as General Secretary of the CCP, of retiring (at least formally) from public life at the end of his second term at the helm of the Party:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/13/sunday-review/xi-jinping-china.html?ref=todayspaper
14 October 2017
Britain's Home Office Unprepared for Brexit
In March 2019, when Britain leaves the European Union, the Home Office (the Ministry of the British government roughly analogous to the US Department of Homeland Security) will have to provide residency documentation to the 3 million EU nationals who now live in the United Kingdom, make immigration decisions about other EU nationals who want to come to the UK to work, and enforce customs controls on goods entering the UK from EU countries. According to The Economist, the Home Office is not prepared for these tasks, nor is it likely to be in 2019:
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730185-there-little-evidence-department-ready-challenges-brexit-home
https://www.economist.com/news/britain/21730185-there-little-evidence-department-ready-challenges-brexit-home
13 October 2017
Trump Refuses to Certify Iranian Compliance with Nuclear Deal, Undercutting Tehran's Moderates
US President Donald Trump has stated that he will not certify formally that Iran is in compliance with the agreement it reached in 2015 with the international community regarding its enrichment of nuclear fuel. Prior to signing that agreement, Iran was enriching nuclear materials to weapons grade. Under the deal, Iran surrendered its stockpile of enriched nuclear fuel, ceased its enrichment activities, and agreed to international inspection of its nuclear and military facilities. In return, the United Nations, the European Union and the United States removed most of the economic sanctions they had imposed on Iran.
Almost all observers agree that Iran has complied with its obligations under the agreement. Trump's refusal to certify Iranian compliance, however, permits the US Congress to reimpose the American economic sanctions against Iran that President Barrack Obama lifted in 2015. Most analysts believe that Congress is unlikely to reimpose those sanctions.
Nonetheless, Trump's refusal to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal will prove significant, even if the US does not reimpose its previously-removed sanctions on Iran. The move will weaken the political position of the country's moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, and strengthen the country's hardliners:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21730162-unlikely-alliance-against-islamic-state-may-unravel-scrapping-deal
Almost all observers agree that Iran has complied with its obligations under the agreement. Trump's refusal to certify Iranian compliance, however, permits the US Congress to reimpose the American economic sanctions against Iran that President Barrack Obama lifted in 2015. Most analysts believe that Congress is unlikely to reimpose those sanctions.
Nonetheless, Trump's refusal to certify Iranian compliance with the nuclear deal will prove significant, even if the US does not reimpose its previously-removed sanctions on Iran. The move will weaken the political position of the country's moderate president, Hassan Rouhani, and strengthen the country's hardliners:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21730162-unlikely-alliance-against-islamic-state-may-unravel-scrapping-deal
The Economist: Xi Jinping is the World's Most Powerful Man
On Wednesday, 18 October, the 19th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will begin in Beijing (see blog post of 10 September). There is little doubt that Xi Jinping, the President of China, will be chosen to serve a second five-year term as the General Secretary of the Party. This week's issue of The Economist includes a thoughtful appraisal of Xi's first term as head of the CCP:
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21730138-contradicting-deng-xiaoping-mr-xi-has-concentrated-vast-power-his-own-hands-xi-jinping-has
https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21730138-contradicting-deng-xiaoping-mr-xi-has-concentrated-vast-power-his-own-hands-xi-jinping-has
01 October 2017
Iranian Kurds Dream of Independence
More than 30 million Kurds live in western Asia. Although the Kurds speak a distinct language, there is no Kurdish state. More than half of the Kurds live in southeastern Turkey; the balance live in northern and eastern Syria, northern Iraq and northwestern Iran. Since the American invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurds of Northern Iraq have been governed by the Kurdistan Regional Government and have enjoyed de facto political autonomy.
In a referendum held in late September, Kurds living in northern Iraq voted overwhelmingly in favor of declaring independence from Iraq. The Kurdistan Regional Government claims that the vote gives it the moral authority to negotiate Iraqi Kurdistan's secession from Iraq. The Iraqi government, however, has ruled out independence for Iraqi Kurdistan, and insists that it will not discuss the issue with the Kurdistan Regional Government.
The independence referendum has shaken the other countries in the region with sizeable Kurdish populations. In Kurdish cities in Iran, which lie only a short distance from the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, the vote was greeted with celebrations and calls for independence for Iranian Kurdistan. The response from Tehran was both predictable and emphatic:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21729790-referendum-held-iraqi-kurds-revving-up-their-iranian-cousins-irans-kurds
In a referendum held in late September, Kurds living in northern Iraq voted overwhelmingly in favor of declaring independence from Iraq. The Kurdistan Regional Government claims that the vote gives it the moral authority to negotiate Iraqi Kurdistan's secession from Iraq. The Iraqi government, however, has ruled out independence for Iraqi Kurdistan, and insists that it will not discuss the issue with the Kurdistan Regional Government.
The independence referendum has shaken the other countries in the region with sizeable Kurdish populations. In Kurdish cities in Iran, which lie only a short distance from the border with Iraqi Kurdistan, the vote was greeted with celebrations and calls for independence for Iranian Kurdistan. The response from Tehran was both predictable and emphatic:
https://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21729790-referendum-held-iraqi-kurds-revving-up-their-iranian-cousins-irans-kurds
Legal Reform in China
A report in this week's issue of The Economist examines recent trends in the Chinese legal system. The article reaches the following conclusion:
[T]he picture that emerges from the flurry of reforms is of a Chinese legal system becoming more professional and fairer when it comes to strictly commercial disputes and basic administrative problems. There is no contradiction between this trend and the government’s increasing readiness to use the law to lock up dissidents. Both are aimed at reinforcing the party’s grip. A well-functioning court system is essential for the health of the economy. Giving aggrieved citizens outlets to challenge the government without resorting to protest is good for social stability. As for cases with wider political ramifications, submitting them to impartial justice is simply too big a risk, the party reckons."See You in Court." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, Ltd., 30 Sept. 2017:41-42.
